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Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

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  • van Ruijven, Bas J.
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.
  • van Vliet, Jasper
  • Mendoza Beltran, Angelica
  • Deetman, Sebastiaan
  • den Elzen, Michel G.J.

Abstract

In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework. Energy use in regions and economic sectors is affected differently by ambitious climate policies. We find that the potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. With respect to technology choices in the power sector, we find major application of CO2 storage in Indonesia and India, whereas Korea and India apply more solar and wind. Projections for Japan include a (debatable) large share of nuclear power. China and, India, and South-East Asia, show a diverse technology choice in the power sector. For the industry sector, we find that the recent rapid growth in China limits the potential for emission reduction in the next decades, assuming that recently built coal-based industry facilities are in use for the next decades. For the residential sector, the model results show that fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in GHG mitigation scenarios. With respect to co-benefits, we find lower imports of fossil energy in mitigation scenarios and a clear reduction of air pollutant emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • van Ruijven, Bas J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van Vliet, Jasper & Mendoza Beltran, Angelica & Deetman, Sebastiaan & den Elzen, Michel G.J., 2012. "Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 459-469.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s459-s469
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.03.013
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    1. Krey, Volker & O'Neill, Brian C. & van Ruijven, Bas & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Daioglou, Vassilis & Eom, Jiyong & Jiang, Leiwen & Nagai, Yu & Pachauri, Shonali & Ren, Xiaolin, 2012. "Urban and rural energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 272-283.
    2. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
    3. Johansson, Daniel J. A. & Lucas, Paul L. & Weitzel, Matthias & Ahlgren, Erik O. & Bazaz, A. B. & Chen, Wenying & den Elzen, Michel G. J. & Ghosh, Joydeep & Grahn, Maria & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Peterson, S, 2012. "Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime," Kiel Working Papers 1808, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Gupta, Dipti & Ghersi, Frédéric & Vishwanathan, Saritha S. & Garg, Amit, 2019. "Achieving sustainable development in India along low carbon pathways: Macroeconomic assessment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Shen, Chang & Linn, Joshua, 2021. "The Effect of Income on Vehicle Demand: Evidence from China’s New Vehicle Market," RFF Working Paper Series 21-17, Resources for the Future.
    6. Michel Elzen & Angelica Beltran & Andries Hof & Bas Ruijven & Jasper Vliet, 2013. "Reduction targets and abatement costs of developing countries resulting from global and developed countries’ reduction targets by 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 491-512, April.
    7. Francesco Bosello & Carlo Orecchia & David A. Raitzer, 2016. "Decarbonization Pathways in Southeast Asia: New Results for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam," Working Papers 2016.75, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Adolfo Maza & José Villaverde & María Hierro, 2015. "Non- $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 Generating Energy Shares in the World: Cross-Country Differences and Polarization," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 61(3), pages 319-343, July.
    9. Calvin, Katherine & Fawcett, Allen & Kejun, Jiang, 2012. "Comparing model results to national climate policy goals: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 306-315.
    10. Lucas, Paul L. & Nielsen, Jens & Calvin, Katherine & L. McCollum, David & Marangoni, Giacomo & Strefler, Jessica & van der Zwaan, Bob C.C. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2015. "Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 705-717.
    11. Ruamsuke, Kawin & Dhakal, Shobhakar & Marpaung, Charles O.P., 2015. "Energy and economic impacts of the global climate change policy on Southeast Asian countries: A general equilibrium analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 446-461.
    12. Zhang, Xu & Ou, Xunmin & Yang, Xi & Qi, Tianyu & Nam, Kyung-Min & Zhang, Da & Zhang, Xiliang, 2017. "Socioeconomic burden of air pollution in China: Province-level analysis based on energy economic model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 478-489.
    13. Ken Oshiro & Keii Gi & Shinichiro Fujimori & Heleen L. Soest & Christoph Bertram & Jacques Després & Toshihiko Masui & Pedro Rochedo & Mark Roelfsema & Zoi Vrontisi, 2020. "Mid-century emission pathways in Japan associated with the global 2 °C goal: national and global models’ assessments based on carbon budgets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1913-1927, October.
    14. A. F. Hof & M. G. J. Elzen & A. Mendoza Beltran, 2016. "The EU 40 % greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030 in perspective," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 375-392, June.
    15. Lucas, Paul L. & Shukla, P.R. & Chen, Wenying & van Ruijven, Bas J. & Dhar, Subash & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2013. "Implications of the international reduction pledges on long-term energy system changes and costs in China and India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1032-1041.
    16. Mittal, Shivika & Dai, Hancheng & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Bridging greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy deployment target: Comparative assessment of China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 301-313.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greenhouse gas mitigation; Asia; Power sector; Industry; Household fuel switching; Co-benefits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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