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Implications of the international reduction pledges on long-term energy system changes and costs in China and India

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Listed:
  • Lucas, Paul L.
  • Shukla, P.R.
  • Chen, Wenying
  • van Ruijven, Bas J.
  • Dhar, Subash
  • den Elzen, Michel G.J.
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of postponing global mitigation action on abatement costs and energy systems changes in China and India. It compares energy-system changes and mitigation costs from a global and two national energy-system models under two global emission pathways with medium likelihood of meeting the 2°C target: a least-cost pathway and a pathway that postpones ambitious mitigation action, starting from the Copenhagen Accord pledges. Both pathways have similar 2010–2050 cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis shows that postponing mitigation action increases the lock-in in less energy efficient technologies and results in much higher cumulative mitigation costs. The models agree that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear energy are important mitigation technologies, while the shares of biofuels and other renewables vary largely over the models. Differences between India and China with respect to the timing of emission reductions and the choice of mitigation measures relate to differences in projections of rapid economic change, capital stock turnover and technological development. Furthermore, depending on the way it is implemented, climate policy could increase indoor air pollution, but it is likely to provide synergies for energy security. These relations should be taken into account when designing national climate policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas, Paul L. & Shukla, P.R. & Chen, Wenying & van Ruijven, Bas J. & Dhar, Subash & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2013. "Implications of the international reduction pledges on long-term energy system changes and costs in China and India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1032-1041.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:63:y:2013:i:c:p:1032-1041
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.09.026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucas, Paul L. & Nielsen, Jens & Calvin, Katherine & L. McCollum, David & Marangoni, Giacomo & Strefler, Jessica & van der Zwaan, Bob C.C. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2015. "Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 705-717.
    2. repec:eee:appene:v:218:y:2018:i:c:p:114-130 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:appene:v:195:y:2017:i:c:p:774-785 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Henri Waisman, 2016. "Global carbon pricing and the “Common But Differentiated Responsibilities”: the case of China," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(5), pages 671-689, October.
    5. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Tasios, Nikos & Paroussos, Leonidas & Capros, Pantelis & Tsani, Stella, 2017. "Energy system impacts and policy implications of the European Intended Nationally Determined Contribution and low-carbon pathway to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 216-226.
    6. Daniel Johansson & Paul Lucas & Matthias Weitzel & Erik Ahlgren & A. Bazaz & Wenying Chen & Michel Elzen & Joydeep Ghosh & Maria Grahn & Qiao-Mei Liang & Sonja Peterson & Basanta Pradhan & Bas Ruijven, 2015. "Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(8), pages 1335-1359, December.
    7. Viebahn, Peter & Vallentin, Daniel & Höller, Samuel, 2015. "Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China’s power sector – An integrated assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 229-244.
    8. Mittal, Shivika & Dai, Hancheng & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Bridging greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy deployment target: Comparative assessment of China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 301-313.
    9. Peterson, Sonja & Weitzel, Matthias, 2014. "Reaching a climate agreement: Do we have to compensate for energy market effects of climate policy?," Kiel Working Papers 1965, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Lining Wang & Wenying Chen & Hongjun Zhang & Ding Ma, 2017. "Dynamic equity carbon permit allocation scheme to limit global warming to two degrees," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 609-628, April.
    11. repec:eee:enepol:v:114:y:2018:i:c:p:355-366 is not listed on IDEAS

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