Implications of the international reduction pledges on long-term energy system changes and costs in China and India
This paper analyses the impact of postponing global mitigation action on abatement costs and energy systems changes in China and India. It compares energy-system changes and mitigation costs from a global and two national energy-system models under two global emission pathways with medium likelihood of meeting the 2°C target: a least-cost pathway and a pathway that postpones ambitious mitigation action, starting from the Copenhagen Accord pledges. Both pathways have similar 2010–2050 cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis shows that postponing mitigation action increases the lock-in in less energy efficient technologies and results in much higher cumulative mitigation costs. The models agree that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear energy are important mitigation technologies, while the shares of biofuels and other renewables vary largely over the models. Differences between India and China with respect to the timing of emission reductions and the choice of mitigation measures relate to differences in projections of rapid economic change, capital stock turnover and technological development. Furthermore, depending on the way it is implemented, climate policy could increase indoor air pollution, but it is likely to provide synergies for energy security. These relations should be taken into account when designing national climate policies.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Garg, Amit & Shukla, P.R., 2009. "Coal and energy security for India: Role of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1032-1041.
- P. Shukla & Subash Dhar, 2011. "Climate agreements and India: aligning options and opportunities on a new track," International Environmental Agreements- Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 229-243, September.
- Chen, Wenying, 2005. "The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 885-896, May.
- van Ruijven, Bas & Urban, Frauke & Benders, René M.J. & Moll, Henri C. & van der Sluijs, Jeroen P. & de Vries, Bert & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2008. "Modeling Energy and Development: An Evaluation of Models and Concepts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 2801-2821, December.
- Daniel J.A. Johansson & Paul L. Lucas & Matthias Weitzel & Erik O. Ahlgren & A.B. Bazaz & Wenying Chen & Michel G.J. den Elzen & Joydeep Ghosh & Qiao-Mei Liang & Sonja Peterson & Basanta K. Pradhan & , 2012.
"Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime,"
Kiel Working Papers
1808, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Daniel Johansson & Paul Lucas & Matthias Weitzel & Erik Ahlgren & A. Bazaz & Wenying Chen & Michel Elzen & Joydeep Ghosh & Maria Grahn & Qiao-Mei Liang & Sonja Peterson & Basanta Pradhan & Bas Ruijven, 2015. "Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(8), pages 1335-1359, December.
- Johansson, Daniel J. A. & Lucas, Paul L. & Weitzel, Matthias & Ahlgren, Erik O. & Bazaz, A. B. & Chen, Wenying & den Elzen, Michel G. J. & Ghosh, Joydeep & Grahn, Maria & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Peterson, S, 2012. "Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime," Kiel Working Papers 1808, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Steckel, Jan Christoph & Jakob, Michael & Marschinski, Robert & Luderer, Gunnar, 2011. "From carbonization to decarbonization?--Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3443-3455, June.
- Chen, Wenying & Li, Hualin & Wu, Zongxin, 2010. "Western China energy development and west to east energy transfer: Application of the Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7106-7120, November.
- van Ruijven, Bas J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van Vliet, Jasper & Mendoza Beltran, Angelica & Deetman, Sebastiaan & den Elzen, Michel G.J., 2012. "Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S459-S469.
- van Ruijven, Bas J. & Weitzel, Matthias & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Peterson, Sonja & Narita, Daiju, 2012. "Emission allowances and mitigation costs of China and India resulting from different effort-sharing approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 116-134.
- Jasper Vliet & Maarten Berg & Michiel Schaeffer & Detlef Vuuren & Michel Elzen & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Malte Meinshausen, 2012. "Copenhagen Accord Pledges imply higher costs for staying below 2°C warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 551-561, July.
- Shukla, Priyadarshi R. & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, 2012. "Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S487-S495.
- Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
- Chen, Wenying & Wu, Zongxin & He, Jiankun & Gao, Pengfei & Xu, Shaofeng, 2007. "Carbon emission control strategies for China: A comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 59-72.
- S. Mahendra Dev, 2008. "India," Chapters, in: Handbook on the South Asian Economies, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S251-S260.
- P. R. Shukla & Subash Dhar & Diptiranjan Mahapatra, 2008. "Low-carbon society scenarios for India," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages S156-S176, December.
- van Ruijven, Bas J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & de Vries, Bert J.M. & Isaac, Morna & van der Sluijs, Jeroen P. & Lucas, Paul L. & Balachandra, P., 2011. "Model projections for household energy use in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7747-7761.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:63:y:2013:i:c:p:1032-1041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.