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Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime

Author

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  • Daniel Johansson

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  • Paul Lucas
  • Matthias Weitzel
  • Erik Ahlgren
  • A. Bazaz
  • Wenying Chen
  • Michel Elzen
  • Joydeep Ghosh
  • Maria Grahn
  • Qiao-Mei Liang
  • Sonja Peterson
  • Basanta Pradhan
  • Bas Ruijven
  • P. Shukla
  • Detlef Vuuren
  • Yi-Ming Wei

Abstract

This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scale are soft-linked and harmonized with respect to population and economic assumptions. We simulate a climate regime, based on long-term convergence of per capita carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, starting from the emission pledges presented in the Copenhagen Accord to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and allowing full emissions trading between countries. Under the climate regime, Indian emission allowances are allowed to grow more than the Chinese allowances, due to the per capita convergence rule and the higher population growth in India. Economic and energy implications not only differ among the two countries, but also across model types. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. The reduction in carbon intensity is mostly achieved through deployment of carbon capture and storage, renewable energy sources and nuclear energy. The economic impacts are generally higher in China than in India, due to higher 2010–2050 cumulative abatement in China and the fact that India can offset more of its abatement cost though international emission trading. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

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  • Daniel Johansson & Paul Lucas & Matthias Weitzel & Erik Ahlgren & A. Bazaz & Wenying Chen & Michel Elzen & Joydeep Ghosh & Maria Grahn & Qiao-Mei Liang & Sonja Peterson & Basanta Pradhan & Bas Ruijven, 2015. "Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(8), pages 1335-1359, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:20:y:2015:i:8:p:1335-1359
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-014-9549-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Niklas Vahlne & Erik O. Ahlgren, 2014. "Energy Efficiency at the Base of the Pyramid: A System-Based Market Model for Improved Cooking Stove Adoption," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(12), pages 1-21, November.
    2. Weitzel, Matthias, 2014. "Worse off from reduced cost? The role of policy design under uncertain technological advancement," Kiel Working Papers 1926, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Matthias Weitzel, 2017. "Who gains from technological advancement? The role of policy design when cost development for key abatement technologies is uncertain," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(1), pages 151-181, January.
    4. Warner, Kevin J. & Jones, Glenn A., 2017. "A population-induced renewable energy timeline in nine world regions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 65-76.
    5. repec:spr:masfgc:v:22:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11027-016-9710-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:wsi:ccexxx:v:04:y:2013:i:04:n:s2010007813400125 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Climate policy; China; India; Costs; Energy;

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