IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/masfgc/v22y2017i1d10.1007_s11027-015-9671-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of uncertainty in future costs of key CO2 abatement technologies: a sensitivity analysis with a global computable general equilibrium model

Author

Listed:
  • Matthias Weitzel

    () (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
    Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

Abstract

Deep emission cuts rely on the use of low carbon technologies like renewable energy or carbon capture and storage. There is considerable uncertainty about their future costs. We carry out a sensitivity analysis based on Gauss Quadrature for cost parameters describing these technologies in order to evaluate the effect of the uncertainty on total and marginal mitigation costs as well as composition changes in the energy system. Globally, effects in total cost often average out, but different regions are affected quite differently from the underlying uncertainty in costs for key abatement technologies. Regions can be either affected because they are well suited to deploy a technology for geophysical reasons or because of repercussions through international energy markets. The absolute impact of uncertainty on consumption increases over the time horizon and with the ambition of emission reductions. Uncertainty in abatement costs relative to expected abatement costs are however larger under a moderate ambition climate policy scenario because in this case the marginal abatement occurs in the electricity sector where the cost uncertainty is implemented. Under more ambitious climate policy in line with the two degree target, the electricity sector is always decarbonized by 2050, hence uncertainty has less effect on the electricity mix. The findings illustrate the need for regional results as global averages can hide distributional consequences on technological uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Weitzel, 2017. "The role of uncertainty in future costs of key CO2 abatement technologies: a sensitivity analysis with a global computable general equilibrium model," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 153-173, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:22:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11027-015-9671-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-015-9671-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11027-015-9671-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weitzel, Matthias & Hübler, Michael & Peterson, Sonja, 2012. "Fair, optimal or detrimental? Environmental vs. strategic use of border carbon adjustment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 198-207.
    2. Gunnar Luderer & Enrica DeCian & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Marian Leimbach & Henri Waisman & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2012. "On the regional distribution of mitigation costs in a global cap-and-trade regime," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 59-78, September.
    3. Grubler, Arnulf, 2010. "The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5174-5188, September.
    4. Webster, Mort & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John, 2010. "The hedge value of international emissions trading under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1787-1796, April.
    5. Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertra, 2010. "The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    6. Sébastien Mary & Euan Phimister & Deborah Roberts & Fabien Santini, 2013. "Testing the sensitivity of CGE results: A Monte Carlo Filtering approach to an application to rural development policies in Aberdeenshire," JRC Working Papers JRC85290, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    7. Gunnar Luderer & Volker Krey & Katherine Calvin & James Merrick & Silvana Mima & Robert Pietzcker & Jasper Vliet & Kenichi Wada, 2014. "The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF27 scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 427-441, April.
    8. William D. Nordhaus, 2014. "The Perils of the Learning Model for Modeling Endogenous Technological Change," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    9. Barbara Koelbl & Machteld Broek & André Faaij & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "Uncertainty in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) deployment projections: a cross-model comparison exercise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 461-476, April.
    10. Hermeling, Claudia & Löschel, Andreas & Mennel, Tim, 2013. "A new robustness analysis for climate policy evaluations: A CGE application for the EU 2020 targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 27-35.
    11. Matthias Kalkuhl & Ottmar Edenhofer & Kai Lessmann, 2015. "The Role of Carbon Capture and Sequestration Policies for Climate Change Mitigation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 60(1), pages 55-80, January.
    12. Gunnar Luderer & Volker Krey & Katherine Calvin & James Merrick & Silvana Mima & Robert Pietzcker & Jasper van Vliet & Kenichi Wada, 2014. "The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF27 scenarios," Post-Print halshs-00961843, HAL.
    13. Weitzel, Matthias, 2014. "Worse off from reduced cost? The role of policy design under uncertain technological advancement," Kiel Working Papers 1926, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    14. Elmar Kriegler & John Weyant & Geoffrey Blanford & Volker Krey & Leon Clarke & Jae Edmonds & Allen Fawcett & Gunnar Luderer & Keywan Riahi & Richard Richels & Steven Rose & Massimo Tavoni & Detlef Vuu, 2014. "The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 353-367, April.
    15. Osamu Akashi & Tatsuya Hanaoka & Toshihiko Masui & Mikiko Kainuma, 2014. "Halving global GHG emissions by 2050 without depending on nuclear and CCS," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 611-622, April.
    16. Klepper, Gernot & Peterson, Sonja & Springer, Katrin, 2003. "DART97: a description of the multi-regional, multi-sectoral trade model for the analysis of climate policies," Kiel Working Papers 1149, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    17. Volker Krey & Leon Clarke, 2011. "Role of renewable energy in climate mitigation: a synthesis of recent scenarios," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 1131-1158, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Calderon, Silvia & Clarke, Leon & Daenzer, Katie & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Lucena, André F.P. & Octaviano, Claudia & Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas, 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 526-542.
    2. Luderer, Gunnar & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Carrara, Samuel & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Johnson, Nils & Mima, Silvana & Arent, Douglas, 2017. "Assessment of wind and solar power in global low-carbon energy scenarios: An introduction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 542-551.
    3. Weitzel, Matthias, 2014. "Worse off from reduced cost? The role of policy design under uncertain technological advancement," Kiel Working Papers 1926, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Matthias Weitzel, 2017. "Who gains from technological advancement? The role of policy design when cost development for key abatement technologies is uncertain," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(1), pages 151-181, January.
    5. Zhang, Shuwei & Bauer, Nico & Yin, Guangzhi & Xie, Xi, 2020. "Technology learning and diffusion at the global and local scales: A modeling exercise in the REMIND model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Ueckerdt, Falko & Pietzcker, Robert & Scholz, Yvonne & Stetter, Daniel & Giannousakis, Anastasis & Luderer, Gunnar, 2017. "Decarbonizing global power supply under region-specific consideration of challenges and options of integrating variable renewables in the REMIND model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 665-684.
    7. Guivarch, Céline & Monjon, Stéphanie, 2017. "Identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy security in a low-carbon world: The case of Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 530-541.
    8. Hang Deng & Jeffrey M. Bielicki & Michael Oppenheimer & Jeffrey P. Fitts & Catherine A. Peters, 2017. "Leakage risks of geologic CO2 storage and the impacts on the global energy system and climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 151-163, September.
    9. Jérôme Hilaire & Jan C. Minx & Max W. Callaghan & Jae Edmonds & Gunnar Luderer & Gregory F. Nemet & Joeri Rogelj & Maria Mar Zamora, 2019. "Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 189-219, November.
    10. Johnson, Nils & Strubegger, Manfred & McPherson, Madeleine & Parkinson, Simon C. & Krey, Volker & Sullivan, Patrick, 2017. "A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 651-664.
    11. Gunnar Luderer & Michaja Pehl & Anders Arvesen & Thomas Gibon & Benjamin Bodirsky & Harmen Sytze de Boer & Oliver Fricko & Mohamad Hejazi & Florian Humpenöder & Gokul Iyer & Silvana Mima & Ioanna Mour, 2019. "Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies," Post-Print hal-02380468, HAL.
    12. I. Mouratiadou & M. Bevione & D. L. Bijl & L. Drouet & M. Hejazi & S. Mima & M. Pehl & G. Luderer, 2018. "Water demand for electricity in deep decarbonisation scenarios: a multi-model assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 91-106, March.
    13. Dai, Hancheng & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Silva Herran, Diego & Shiraki, Hiroto & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2017. "The impacts on climate mitigation costs of considering curtailment and storage of variable renewable energy in a general equilibrium model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 627-637.
    14. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Ueckerdt, Falko & Carrara, Samuel & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & Després, Jacques & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Johnson, Nils & Kitous, Alban & Scholz, Yvonne & Sullivan, Patrick & Ludere, 2017. "System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 583-599.
    15. Johansson, Daniel J. A. & Lucas, Paul L. & Weitzel, Matthias & Ahlgren, Erik O. & Bazaz, A. B. & Chen, Wenying & den Elzen, Michel G. J. & Ghosh, Joydeep & Grahn, Maria & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Peterson, S, 2012. "Multi-model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime," Kiel Working Papers 1808, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    16. Deger Saygin & Ruud Kempener & Nicholas Wagner & Maria Ayuso & Dolf Gielen, 2015. "The Implications for Renewable Energy Innovation of Doubling the Share of Renewables in the Global Energy Mix between 2010 and 2030," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(6), pages 1-38, June.
    17. Volker Krey, 2014. "Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 363-383, July.
    18. Dai, Hancheng & Silva Herran, Diego & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Key factors affecting long-term penetration of global onshore wind energy integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 19-30.
    19. Ueckerdt, Falko & Brecha, Robert & Luderer, Gunnar & Sullivan, Patrick & Schmid, Eva & Bauer, Nico & Böttger, Diana & Pietzcker, Robert, 2015. "Representing power sector variability and the integration of variable renewables in long-term energy-economy models using residual load duration curves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1799-1814.
    20. Ulrike Kornek & Jan Christoph Steckel & Kai Lessmann & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2017. "The climate rent curse: new challenges for burden sharing," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(6), pages 855-882, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:22:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11027-015-9671-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.