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Sensitivity Analysis in Economic Simulations: A Systematic Approach

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  • Hermeling, Claudia
  • Mennel, Tim

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis studies how the variation in the numerical output of a model can be quantitatively apportioned to different sources of variation in basic input parameters. Thus, it serves to examine the robustness of numerical results with respect to input parameters, which is a prerequisite for deriving economic conclusions from them. In practice, modellers apply different methods, often chosen ad hoc, to do sensitivity analysis. This paper pursues a systematic approach. It formalizes deterministic and stochastic methods used for sensitivity analysis. Moreover, it presents the numerical algorithms to apply the methods, in particular, an improved version of a Gauss-Quadrature algorithm, applicable to one as well as multidimensional sensitivity analysis. The advantages and disadvantages of different methods and algorithms are discussed as well as their applicability.

Suggested Citation

  • Hermeling, Claudia & Mennel, Tim, 2008. "Sensitivity Analysis in Economic Simulations: A Systematic Approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:7391
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Weitzel, 2017. "The role of uncertainty in future costs of key CO2 abatement technologies: a sensitivity analysis with a global computable general equilibrium model," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 153-173, January.
    2. Lemelin, André & Savard, Luc, 2022. "What do CGE models have to say about fiscal reform?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 758-774.
    3. Olga Diukanova, 2018. "Multivariate Sensitivity Analysis with a Very Large CGE Model," JRC Research Reports JRC111144, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Hermeling, Claudia & Löschel, Andreas & Mennel, Tim, 2013. "A new robustness analysis for climate policy evaluations: A CGE application for the EU 2020 targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 27-35.
    5. Li, Xin, 2014. "The Demographic Structure and Export Strategy in Emerging Economies," Conference papers 332502, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sensitivity Analysis; Computational Methods;

    JEL classification:

    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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