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Halving global GHG emissions by 2050 without depending on nuclear and CCS


  • Osamu Akashi


  • Tatsuya Hanaoka
  • Toshihiko Masui
  • Mikiko Kainuma


In this paper, we assessed the technological feasibility and economic viability of the mid-term (until 2050) GHG emission reduction target required for stabilization of radiative forcing at 2.6 W/m2. Given the apparent uncertainty surrounding the future deployment of nuclear and CCS technologies, we intensively investigated emission reduction scenarios without nuclear and CCS. The analysis using AIM/Enduse[Global] shows the emission reduction target is technologically feasible, but the cost for achieving the target becomes very high if nuclear and CCS options are limited. The main reason for the cost rise is that additional investment for expensive technologies is required in order to compensate for emission increases in the steel, cement and power generation sectors in the absence of CCS. On the other hand, if material efficiency improvement measures, such as material substitution, efficient use of materials and recycling, are taken, the cost of achieving the emission reduction target is significantly reduced. The result indicates the potentially important role of material efficiency improvement in curbing the cost of significant GHG emission reductions without depending on nuclear and CCS. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Osamu Akashi & Tatsuya Hanaoka & Toshihiko Masui & Mikiko Kainuma, 2014. "Halving global GHG emissions by 2050 without depending on nuclear and CCS," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 611-622, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:123:y:2014:i:3:p:611-622
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0942-x

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Akashi, Osamu & Hijioka, Yasuaki & Masui, Toshihiko & Hanaoka, Tatsuya & Kainuma, Mikiko, 2012. "GHG emission scenarios in Asia and the world: The key technologies for significant reduction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 346-358.
    2. Akashi, Osamu & Hanaoka, Tatsuya & Matsuoka, Yuzuru & Kainuma, Mikiko, 2011. "A projection for global CO2 emissions from the industrial sector through 2030 based on activity level and technology changes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1855-1867.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Weitzel, 2017. "The role of uncertainty in future costs of key CO2 abatement technologies: a sensitivity analysis with a global computable general equilibrium model," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 153-173, January.
    2. Oshiro, Ken & Kainuma, Mikiko & Masui, Toshihiko, 2017. "Implications of Japan's 2030 target for long-term low emission pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 581-587.
    3. Borocz, Maria & Horvath, Balint & Herczeg, Boglarka & Kovacs, Attila, 2015. "Greener cement sector and potential climate strategy development between 2015-2030 (Hungarian case study)," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 9(4), pages 1-10, December.

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