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Assessment of GHG emission reduction pathways in a society without carbon capture and nuclear technologies


  • Okagawa, Azusa
  • Masui, Toshihiko
  • Akashi, Osamu
  • Hijioka, Yasuaki
  • Matsumoto, Kenichi
  • Kainuma, Mikiko


Every possible technology is pursued in order to achieve strict radiative forcing targets. Nuclear energy and Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) are regarded as important mitigation options. However, harsh criticisms have been directed at Japanese nuclear energy policy after the Fukushima nuclear accident, and the Japanese government will be required to re-evaluate not only its energy policy, but also the GHG reduction target itself. Like nuclear energy, CCS might not be regarded as a suitable option for GHG mitigation because its long-term safety has not been revealed. In this paper we analyze the energy policy response to an absence of nuclear energy and CCS, especially focusing on Japan, China and India. We find that the appropriate energy strategies against the unproven technologies differ between regions due to the uneven pre-existing nuclear energy, CCS potential and renewable energy potential, and the resource endowments and the levels of economic development. We also find that the strict mitigation target can be achieved even if nuclear energy and CCS are not available. In such a case, however, significant enhancement of renewable energy is needed, as well as particular fossil fuel alternatives based on region-specific availabilities and costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Okagawa, Azusa & Masui, Toshihiko & Akashi, Osamu & Hijioka, Yasuaki & Matsumoto, Kenichi & Kainuma, Mikiko, 2012. "Assessment of GHG emission reduction pathways in a society without carbon capture and nuclear technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 391-398.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s391-s398 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.011

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Saveyn, Bert & Van Regemorter, Denise & Ciscar, Juan Carlos, 2011. "Economic analysis of the climate pledges of the Copenhagen Accord for the EU and other major countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 34-40.
    2. Toshihiko Masui & Kenichi Matsumoto & Yasuaki Hijioka & Tsuguki Kinoshita & Toru Nozawa & Sawako Ishiwatari & Etsushi Kato & P. Shukla & Yoshiki Yamagata & Mikiko Kainuma, 2011. "An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm −2 radiative forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 59-76, November.
    3. Henry Chen, Y.-H. & Reilly, John M. & Paltsev, Sergey, 2011. "The prospects for coal-to-liquid conversion: A general equilibrium analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4713-4725, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Jin & Li, Jun & Wu, Yanrui & Wang, Shanyong & Zhao, Dingtao, 2016. "The effects of allowance price on energy demand under a personal carbon trading scheme," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 242-249.
    2. Viebahn, Peter & Vallentin, Daniel & Höller, Samuel, 2015. "Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China’s power sector – An integrated assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 229-244.
    3. Thepkhun, Panida & Limmeechokchai, Bundit & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko & Shrestha, Ram M., 2013. "Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 561-572.
    4. Matsumoto, Ken׳ichi & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Energy security in East Asia under climate mitigation scenarios in the 21st century," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 60-71.
    5. Bosello, Francesco & Orecchia, Carlo & Raitzer, David A., 2016. "Decarbonization Pathways in Southeast Asia: New Results for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation,and Transformation Pathways 250260, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 251-260.
    7. Viebahn, Peter & Vallentin, Daniel & Höller, Samuel, 2014. "Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in India’s power sector – An integrated assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 62-75.
    8. Bosello, Francesco & Marangoni, Giacomo & Orecchia, Carlo & Raitzer, David A. & Tavoni, Massimo, 2016. "The Cost of Climate Stabilization in Southeast Asia, a Joint Assessment with Dynamic Optimization and CGE Models," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation,and Transformation Pathways 251810, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of a Low-Carbon Electricity Transition in Kenya and Ghana: An Exploratory Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," MPRA Paper 78070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:spr:masfgc:v:23:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11027-016-9726-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:spr:masfgc:v:22:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11027-016-9710-3 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Climate change mitigation; Nuclear; CCS; Renewable energy; Recursive dynamic CGE;

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming


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