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Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity

  • Markus Brückner

    (UPF; Antonio Ciccone, ICREA-UPF)

According to the economic approach to political transitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theory requires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. We use rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. Instrumental variable estimates indicate that following a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent, democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and the probability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentage points.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2010 Meeting Papers with number 224.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:224
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Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA

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