Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment
Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t — 1 and t — 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)
Volume (Year): 3 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
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"Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments,"
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- repec:cup:apsrev:v:97:y:2003:i:01:p:75-90_00 is not listed on IDEAS Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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