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Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity

  • Markus Bruckner
  • Antonio Ciccone

According to the economic approach to political transitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theory requires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. We use rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. Instrumental variable estimates indicate that following a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent, democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and the probability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentage points.

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Paper provided by BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 1010.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: May 2010
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Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1010
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