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International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Abstract

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

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  • Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2007. "International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Working Papers 1053, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1053
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    Keywords

    Commodity prices; civil war; Sub-Saharian Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O0 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General
    • P0 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

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