The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature[L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérature en expansion]

Internal conflict prevention calls for a better understanding of the way those events form and spread through space and time. In comparison with other social science disciplines, economics started to explore this field only very recently. Over the past 20 years and as if it was trying to make up for the time lost, we have witnessed a bustle in the number of econometrical research papers written on this subject. What conclusions can we draw from those works? The present document defines the analysis scope of this area of study by insisting on the three deep mechanisms responsible of predatory behaviors: state capacity, the "prize" value of capturing the state and the opportunity cost of joining a rebel group. It also gives an assessment of the constraints and the recent developments in the causal analysis of internal conflicts. Finally, this article shows that the improvements in the methodology of causal inference, in the econometric tools and in the data collection methods open promising research opportunities on topics such as the role of social cohesion or the consequences of climate change on the risk of conflict.