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Resources, Conflict, and Economic Development in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Achyuta Adhvaryu
  • James E. Fenske
  • Gaurav Khanna
  • Anant Nyshadham

Abstract

Natural resources have driven both growth and conflict in modern Africa. We model the interaction of parties engaged in potential conflict over such resources. The likelihood of conflict depends on both the absolute and relative resource endowments of the parties. Resources fuel conflict by raising the gains from expropriation and by increasing fighting strength. Economic prosperity, as a result, is a function of equilibrium conflict prevalence determined not just by a region's own resources but also by the resources of its neighbors. Using high-resolution spatial data on resources, conflicts, and nighttime illumination across the whole of sub-Saharan Africa, we find evidence confirming each of the model's predictions. Structural estimates of the model reveal that conflict equilibria are more prevalent where institutional quality (measured by, e.g., risk of expropriation, property rights, voice and accountability) is worse.

Suggested Citation

  • Achyuta Adhvaryu & James E. Fenske & Gaurav Khanna & Anant Nyshadham, 2018. "Resources, Conflict, and Economic Development in Africa," NBER Working Papers 24309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24309
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    Cited by:

    1. Olaoye, Olumide O. & Zerihun, Mulatu F. & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2025. "Is resource endowment a trigger for conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa? Unveiling the moderating role of income inequality," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    2. Deiana, Claudio & Giua, Ludovica, 2023. "This site is closed! The effect of decommissioning mining waste facilities on mortality in the long run," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Fan, Meiting & Li, Mengxu & Liu, Jianghua & Shao, Shuai, 2022. "Is high natural resource dependence doomed to low carbon emission efficiency? Evidence from 283 cities in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    5. Ang, James B. & Gupta, Satyendra Kumar, 2018. "Agricultural yield and conflict," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 397-417.
    6. Hodler, Roland & Schaudt, Paul & Vesperoni, Alberto, 2023. "Mining for peace," CEPR Discussion Papers 17807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Okoye, Dozie & Pandey, Sujita, 2024. "Welfare comparisons within countries beyond GDP: An application to Nigeria," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Nguyen, Minh-Hoang, 2021. "Resource curse - Wikipedia," OSF Preprints 36uyb, Center for Open Science.
    9. Carolyn Chisadza & Matthew Clance & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2024. "Giant oil discoveries and conflicts," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(6), pages 15681-15710, June.
    10. Wei Wang & Haofei Wang & Xueqin Wang, 2024. "Simulation and prediction of the dynamic evolution characteristics of resource- and technology-driven economic development models: a case study of the Yangtze River economic belt in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 17967-17993, July.
    11. Njamen Kengdo, Arsène Aurelien & Kitio, Victor, 2025. "The defence sector faces the resource curse: Effect of natural resource rents on defence spending in Sub-Saharan Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    12. Tiemele Aristide Affroumou & Isaac Amedanou, 2024. "Internal Conflicts and the Moderating Role of Property Rights in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Property Taxation," Post-Print hal-04610777, HAL.
    13. Boxell, Levi & Dalton, John T. & Leung, Tin Cheuk, 2019. "The Slave Trade and Conflict in Africa, 1400-2000," MPRA Paper 94468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. John D. Huber & Laura Mayoral, 2019. "Group inequality and the severity of civil conflict," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-41, March.
    15. Martin Gassebner & Paul Schaudt & Melvin H. L. Wong, 2020. "Armed Groups in Conflict: Competition and Political Violence in Pakistan," CESifo Working Paper Series 8372, CESifo.
    16. Victoire Girard & Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier, 2020. "Natural resources and the salience of ethnic identities," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2007, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    17. Sini, Snow & Abdul-Rahim, A.S. & Sulaiman, Chindo, 2021. "Does natural resource influence conflict in Africa? Evidence from panel nonlinear relationship," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Magbondé, Kadoukpè Gildas, 2025. "Institutional drivers of global value chains participation in African countries," Sustainable Global Supply Chains Discussion Papers 7, Research Network Sustainable Global Supply Chains.
    19. Mathieu Couttenier & Julian Marcoux & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2024. "The Gravity of Violence," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-04748012, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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