IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Extreme Weather and Civil War in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks?

  • Jean-Francois Maystadt
  • Olivier Ecker
  • Athur Mabiso

Climate change leads to more frequent and more intense droughts in Somalia. In a global context, weather shocks have been found to perpetuate poverty and fuel civil conflict. By relating regional and temporal variations in violent conflict outbreaks with drought incidence and severity, we show that this causality is valid also for Somalia at the local level. We find that livestock price shocks drive drought-induced conflicts through reducing the opportunity costs of conflict participation. Our estimation results indicate that a temperature rise of around 3.2 degrees Celsius—corresponding to the median Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario for eastern Africa by the end of the century—would lower cattle prices by about 4 percent and, in turn, increase the incidence of violent conflict by about 58 percent. Hence climate change will further aggravate Somalia’s security challenges and calls for decisive action to strengthen both drought and conflict resilience, especially in pastoralist and agropastoralist livelihoods.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.econ.kuleuven.be/licos/publications/dp/dp326.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven in its series LICOS Discussion Papers with number 32613.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lic:licosd:32613
Contact details of provider: Postal: De Bériotstraat 34, B-3000 Leuven
Phone: +32 (0) 16 / 32 6598
Fax: +32 (0) 16 / 32 6599
Web page: http://www.econ.kuleuven.be/licos
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
  2. McPeak, John, 2006. "Confronting the risk of asset loss: What role do livestock transfers in northern Kenya play?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 415-437, December.
  3. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 97-126, July.
  4. John G. McPeak & Christopher B. Barrett, 2001. "Differential Risk Exposure and Stochastic Poverty Traps Among East African Pastoralists," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 674-679.
  5. Christa N. Brunnschweiler & Erwin Bulte, 2008. "Natural Resources and Violent Conflict: Resource Abundance, Dependence and the Onset of Civil Wars," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 08/78, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  6. Gilligan, Daniel O. & Hoddinott, John, 2007. "AJAE Appendix: Is There Persistence in the Impact of Emergency Food Aid? Evidence on Consumption, Food Security and Assets in Rural Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics Appendices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(2), May.
  7. Michael Carter & Christopher Barrett, 2006. "The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 178-199.
  8. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Tewodaj Mogues, 2011. "Shocks and Asset Dynamics in Ethiopia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 91 - 120.
  10. Anja Shortland, 2011. ""Robin Hook": The Developmental Effects of Somali Piracy," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 54, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  11. Markus Bruckner, 2009. "Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?," Working Papers in Economics 211, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  12. Marijke Verpoorten, 2007. "Household Coping in war- and peacetime: cattle sales in Rwanda, 1991-2001," LICOS Discussion Papers 18907, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  13. Bundervoet, Tom, 2010. "Assets, Activity Choices, and Civil War: Evidence from Burundi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 955-965, July.
  14. Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 215-27, October.
  15. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
  16. Headey, Derek & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum & You, Liangzhi, 2012. "Enhancing resilience in the Horn of Africa : An exploration into alternative investment options," IFPRI discussion papers 1176, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  17. Gilligan, Daniel O. & Hoddinott, John, 2006. "Is there persistence in the impact of emergency food aid? Evidence on consumption, food security, and assets in rural Ethiopia," FCND discussion papers 209, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  18. Easterly, W & Levine, R, 1996. "Africa's Growth Tragedy : Policies and Ethnic Divisions," Papers 536, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  19. Lybbert, Travis J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Desta, Solomon & Coppock, D. Layne, 2002. "Stochastic Wealth Dynamics And Risk Management Among A Poor Population," Working Papers 14736, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  20. Powell, Benjamin & Ford, Ryan & Nowrasteh, Alex, 2008. "Somalia after state collapse: Chaos or improvement?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 657-670, September.
  21. Clionadh Raleigh & Andrew Linke & HÃ¥vard Hegre & Joakim Karlsen, 2010. "Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(5), pages 651-660, September.
  22. Leeson, Peter T., 2007. "Better off stateless: Somalia before and after government collapse," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 689-710, December.
  23. Carter, Michael R. & Little, Peter D. & Mogues, Tewodaj & Negatu, Workneh, 2007. "Poverty Traps and Natural Disasters in Ethiopia and Honduras," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 835-856, May.
  24. Barrett E. Kirwan & Margaret McMillan, 2007. "Food Aid and Poverty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1152-1160.
  25. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lic:licosd:32613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.