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Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan:

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  • Calderone, Margherita
  • Maystadt, Jean-Francois
  • You, Liangzhi

Abstract

Weather shocks and natural disasters, it has been argued, represent a major threat to national and international security. Our paper contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflict by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan at different geographical and time scales between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict. In the future the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 21 to 30 percent under a median scenario, taking into account uncertainties in both the climate projection and the estimate of the response of violence to temperature variations. Extreme temperature shocks are found to strongly affect the likelihood of violence as well, but the predictive power is hindered by substantial uncertainty. Our paper also sheds light on the vulnerability of areas with particular biophysical characteristics or with vulnerable populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Calderone, Margherita & Maystadt, Jean-Francois & You, Liangzhi, 2013. "Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan:," IFPRI discussion papers 1276, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1276
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    Cited by:

    1. Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Short term effects of drought on communal conflict in Nigeria," Working Papers 201618, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    2. Stijn van Weezel, 2017. "Short term effects of drought on communal conflict in Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 240, Households in Conflict Network.
    3. José García-Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and Terrorism: The Long Lasting Effect of Seismic Shocks," Working Papers 1020, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Ngambouk Vitalis Pemunta & Eno-Akpa Rene Nkongho, 2014. "The Fragility of the Liberal Peace Export to South Sudan: Formal Education Access as a Basis of a Liberal Peace Project," Journal of Human Security, Librello publishing house, vol. 10(1), pages 59-75.
    5. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    6. von Grebmer, Klaus & Bernstein, Jill & Prasai, Nilam & Yin, Sandra & Yohannes, Yisehac & Towey, Olive & Sonntag, Andrea & Neubauer, Larissa & de Waal, Alex, 2015. "2015 Indice de la faim dans le monde: Conflict armés et le défi de la faim," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 978-0-89629-966-5.
    7. von Grebmer, Klaus & Bernstein, Jill & Prasai, Nilam & Yin, Sandra & Yohannes, Yisehac & Towey, Olive & Sonntag, Andrea & Neubauer, Larissa & de Waal, Alex, 2015. "2015 Indice globale della fame: I conflitti armati e la sfida della fame," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 978-0-89629-967-2.
    8. Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Communal violence in the Horn of Africa following the 1998 El Niño," Working Papers 201617, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    9. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and terrorism: the long lasting effect of seismic shocks," Economics Working Papers 1599, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    10. Solomon Hsiang & Marshall Burke & Edward Miguel, 2014. "Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: reply to Buhaug et al," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 399-405, December.
    11. Stijn van Weezel, 2017. "Communal violence in the Horn of Africa following the 1998 El Niño," HiCN Working Papers 241 updated, Households in Conflict Network.
    12. Prieur, Fabien & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2016. "The role of conflict for optimal climate and immigration policy," TSE Working Papers 16-663, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    13. Lopes da Fonseca, Mariana & Baskaran, Thushyanthan, 2015. "Re-evaluating the economic costs of conflicts," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 246, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    14. Boxell, Levi, 2016. "A Drought-Induced African Slave Trade?," MPRA Paper 69853, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Muhammad Kabir Salihu & Andrea Guariso, 2017. "Rainfall inequality, trust and civil conflict in Nigeria," Working Papers 205618510, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    16. Margherita Calderone, 2014. "Die Wirkung von Wetterschocks auf Gewalt: eine Fallstudie aus Ostafrika," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(41), pages 1029-1033.
    17. von Grebmer, Klaus & Bernstein, Jill & Prasai, Nilam & Yin, Sandra & Yohannes, Yisehac & Towey, Olive & Sonntag, Andrea & Neubauer, Larissa & de Waal, Alex, 2015. "2015 Global hunger index: Armed conflict and the challenge of hunger," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 978-0-89629-964-1.
    18. Jean-François Maystadt & Olivier Ecker, 2014. "Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1157-1182.

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    Keywords

    Weather; Shocks; Conflict; Vulnerability;

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