IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Income Shocks and HIV in Africa

  • Burke, Marshall
  • Gong, Erick
  • Jones, Kelly M.

We examine how variation in local economic conditions has shaped the AIDS epidemic in Africa. Using data from over 200,000 individuals across 19 countries, we match biomarker data on individuals' HIV status to information on local rainfall shocks, a large source of variation in income for rural households. We estimate that infection rates in HIV-endemic rural areas increase by 11% for every recent drought, an effect that is statistically and economically significant. Income shocks explain up to 20% of the variation in HIV prevalence across African countries, suggesting policy approaches for HIV prevention that are distinct from existing efforts.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 55392.

in new window

Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55392
Contact details of provider: Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Luke, Nancy, 2006. "Exchange and Condom Use in Informal Sexual Relationships in Urban Kenya," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(2), pages 319-48, January.
  2. Baird, Sarah & Chirwa, Ephraim & McIntosh, Craig & Ozler, Berk, 2009. "The short-term impacts of a schooling conditional cash transfer program on the sexual behavior of young women," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5089, The World Bank.
  3. Frank Ellis, 2000. "The Determinants of Rural Livelihood Diversification in Developing Countries," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 289-302.
  4. Emily Oster, 2007. "HIV and Sexual Behavior Change: Why Not Africa?," NBER Working Papers 13049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. David S. Lee, 2009. "Training, Wages, and Sample Selection: Estimating Sharp Bounds on Treatment Effects," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 1071-1102.
  6. Jeremy Magruder, 2011. "Marital Shopping and Epidemic AIDS," Demography, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1401-1428, November.
  7. Alderman,Harold & Hoddinott, John & Kinsey, Bill, 2003. "Long-term consequences of early childhood malnutrition," FCND discussion papers 168, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  8. Markus Brückner, 2010. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," 2010 Meeting Papers 224, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Hans-Peter Kohler & Rebecca L. Thornton, 2012. "Conditional Cash Transfers and HIV/AIDS Prevention: Unconditionally Promising?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 26(2), pages 165-190.
  10. Edward Miguel, 2005. "Poverty and Witch Killing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1153-1172.
  11. Janet Currie, 2008. "Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise: Socioeconomic Status, Poor Health in Childhood, and Human Capital Development," NBER Working Papers 13987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kudamatsu, Masayuki & Persson, Torsten & Strömberg, David, 2012. "Weather and Infant Mortality in Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 9222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Hoddinott, John & Kinsey, Bill, 2001. " Child Growth in the Time of Drought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 409-36, September.
  14. repec:oup:qjecon:v:111:y:1996:i:2:p:549-73 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Una Okonkwo Osili & Bridget Terry Long, 2007. "Does Female Schooling Reduce Fertility? Evidence from Nigeria," NBER Working Papers 13070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2010. "HIV and Fertility Revisited," NBER Working Papers 16115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Beegle, Kathleen & de Walque, Damien, 2009. "Demographic and socioeconomic patterns of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5076, The World Bank.
  18. Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-26, June.
  19. Emily Oster, 2012. "Routes Of Infection: Exports And Hiv Incidence In Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1025-1058, October.
  20. Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2003. "Economic Crises and Natural Disasters: Coping Strategies and Policy Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1087-1102, July.
  21. Pascaline Dupas, 2009. "Do Teenagers Respond to HIV Risk Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Kenya," NBER Working Papers 14707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Paul Gertler & Manisha Shah & Stefano M. Bertozzi, 2005. "Risky Business: The Market for Unprotected Commercial Sex," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 518-550, June.
  23. Sarah Baird & Craig McIntosh & Berk �zler, 2011. "Cash or Condition? Evidence from a Cash Transfer Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1709-1753.
  24. AfDB AfDB, . "African Development Report 2001," African Development Report, African Development Bank, number 18 edited by Adeleke Oluwole Salami, 11.
  25. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," NBER Working Papers 14132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2010. "Climate Shocks and Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 454-59, May.
  27. Robinson, Jonathan & Yeh, Ethan, 2011. "Risk-coping through sexual networks : evidence from client transfers in Kenya," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5582, The World Bank.
  28. Nicholas Wilson, 2010. "Economic Growth and the HIV/AIDS Pandemic: Evidence from the Early 21st Century Copper Boom," Center for Development Economics 2011-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  29. Lena Edlund & Evelyn Korn, 2002. "A Theory of Prostitution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 181-214, February.
  30. repec:oup:qjecon:v:120:y:2005:i:2:p:467-515 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
  32. Béné, Christophe & Merten, Sonja, 2008. "Women and Fish-for-Sex: Transactional Sex, HIV/AIDS and Gender in African Fisheries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 875-899, May.
  33. Dunkle, Kristin L. & Jewkes, Rachel K. & Brown, Heather C. & Gray, Glenda E. & McIntryre, James A. & Harlow, Siobán D., 2004. "Transactional sex among women in Soweto, South Africa: prevalence, risk factors and association with HIV infection," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 1581-1592, October.
  34. Davis, Benjamin & Winters, Paul & Carletto, Gero & Covarrubias, Katia & Quiñones, Esteban J. & Zezza, Alberto & Stamoulis, Kostas & Azzarri, Carlo & DiGiuseppe, Stefania, 2010. "A Cross-Country Comparison of Rural Income Generating Activities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 48-63, January.
  35. Dupas, Pascaline & Robinson, Jonathan, 2012. "The (hidden) costs of political instability: Evidence from Kenya's 2007 election crisis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 314-329.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55392. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.