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An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • Jeremy Greenwood
  • Philipp Kircher
  • Cezar Santos
  • Michèle Tertilt

Abstract

Twelve percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used a third of the time. To analyze the Malawian epidemic, a choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The calibrated model is used to study several policy interventions. The analysis suggests that the efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and equilibrium effects. The framework thus complements the insights provided by epidemiological studies and small-scale field experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Greenwood & Philipp Kircher & Cezar Santos & Michèle Tertilt, 2018. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 7205, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7205
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Adda, 2016. "Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases: Evidence from High Frequency Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(2), pages 891-941.
    2. Daniela Iorio & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2011. "Education, HIV Status, and Risky Sexual Behavior: How Much Does the Stage of the HIV Epidemic Matter?," Working Papers 624, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    3. Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 2011. "Disease and Development: The Role of Human Capital," 2011 Meeting Papers 605, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Yao, Yao, 2016. "Fertility and HIV risk in Africa," Working Paper Series 5342, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. repec:eee:deveco:v:135:y:2018:i:c:p:392-411 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Giovanni Immordino & Francesco Flaviano Russo, 2012. "Regulating Prostitution: Theory and Evidence from Italy," CSEF Working Papers 308, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 12 Nov 2014.
    7. Gani Aldashev & Jean-Marie Baland, 2012. "Awareness and AIDS: A Political Economy Perspective," Working Papers 1204, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    8. Michèle Tertilt, 2012. "The Research Agenda: Michèle Tertilt on Gender in Macroeconomics," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), November.
    9. Graziella Bertocchi & Arcangelo Dimico, 2015. "The Long-Term Determinants of Female HIV Infection in Africa: The Slave Trade, Polygyny, and Sexual Behavior," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 112, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    10. Leandro De Magalhães & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2015. "The Consumption, Income, and Wealth of the Poorest: Cross-Sectional Facts of Rural and Urban Sub-Saharan Africa for Macroeconomists," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 15/655, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    11. Rachel Cassidy & Marije Groot Bruinderink & Wendy Janssens & Karlijn Morsink, 2018. "The Power to Protect: Household Bargaining and Female Condom Use," CSAE Working Paper Series 2018-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    12. Telalagic, S., 2012. "Optimal Treatment of an SIS Disease with Two Strains," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1229, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Jeremy Greenwood, 2011. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Jeremy Greenwood on DGE beyond Macroeconomics," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ART; circumcision; condoms; disease transmission; epidemiological studies; HIV/AIDS; homo economicus; knowledge about HIV; Malawi; marriage; policy intervention; search; small field experiments; STDs; sex markets;

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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