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An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • Jeremy Greenwood
  • Philipp Kircher
  • Cezar Santos
  • Michèle Tertilt

Abstract

Twelve percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used a third of the time. To analyze the Malawian epidemic, a choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The calibrated model is used to study several policy interventions. The analysis suggests that the efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and equilibrium effects. The framework thus complements the insights provided by epidemiological studies and small-scale field experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Greenwood & Philipp Kircher & Cezar Santos & Michèle Tertilt, 2018. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 7205, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7205
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7205.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicolas L. Jacquet & Serene Tan, 2007. "On the Segmentation of Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 639-664, August.
    2. Weller, Susan C., 1993. "A meta-analysis of condom effectiveness in reducing sexually transmitted HIV," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1635-1644, June.
    3. Jeremy Magruder, 2011. "Marital Shopping and Epidemic AIDS," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1401-1428, November.
    4. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2010. "Recurrent Infection and Externalities in Prevention," CEPR Discussion Papers 8112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Daniela Iorio & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2011. "Education, HIV Status, and Risky Sexual Behavior: How Much Does the Stage of the HIV Epidemic Matter?," Working Papers 624, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    6. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 549-573.
    7. Ashraf, Nava & Bandiera, Oriana & Jack, B. Kelsey, 2014. "No margin, no mission? A field experiment on incentives for public service delivery," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-17.
    8. Paul Gertler & Manisha Shah & Stefano M. Bertozzi, 2005. "Risky Business: The Market for Unprotected Commercial Sex," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 518-550, June.
    9. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Pascaline Dupas, 2011. "Do Teenagers Respond to HIV Risk Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Kenya," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-34, January.
    11. Damien de Walque & Harounan Kazianga & Mead Over, 2012. "Antiretroviral Therapy Perceived Efficacy and Risky Sexual Behaviors: Evidence from Mozambique," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(1), pages 97-126.
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    Cited by:

    1. Telalagic, S., 2012. "Optimal Treatment of an SIS Disease with Two Strains," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1229, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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