How Beliefs about HIV Status Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence from Malawi, Seventh Version
This paper examines how beliefs about own HIV status affect decisions to engage in risky sexual behavior, as measured by having extramarital sex and/or multiple sex partners. The empirical analysis is based on a panel survey of males from the 2006 and 2008 rounds of the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP). The paper first develops a behavioral model of the belief-risky behavior relationship. It then estimates the causal effect of beliefs on risky behavior in a way that takes into account the belief updating mechanisms implied by the model. In particular, the Arellano and Carrasco (2003) semiparametric panel data estimator that is used accommodates both unobserved heterogeneity and belief endogeneity, arising from dependence of current beliefs on past risky behavior. Results show that downward revisions in the belief assigned to being HIV positive increase risky behavior and upward revisions decrease it. We estimate for example that a change in the perceived probability of being HIV positive from 0 to 100% reduces risky behavior between 13.7 and 36.4 percentage points depending on the risky behavior definition and year. Implementation of a modified estimator that allows for misreporting of risky behavior finds the estimates to be downward biased but relatively robust to a wide range of plausible misreporting levels.
|Date of creation:||21 Feb 2011|
|Date of revision:||15 Oct 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104|
Web page: http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/pier
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011.
"Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
- Delavande, Adeline & Gine, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2009. "Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries: A Critical Review and New Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4824, The World Bank.
- James Heckman & Sergio Urzua, 2010.
"Comparing IV with structural models: what simple IV can and cannot identify,"
CeMMAP working papers
CWP08/10, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Heckman, James J. & Urzúa, Sergio, 2010. "Comparing IV with structural models: What simple IV can and cannot identify," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 27-37, May.
- James J. Heckman & Sergio Urzua, 2009. "Comparing IV With Structural Models: What Simple IV Can and Cannot Identify," NBER Working Papers 14706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sergio Urzua & James J. Heckman, 2009. "Comparing IV with Structural Models: What Simple IV Can and Cannot Identify," Working Papers 200906, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
- Heckman, James J. & Urzua, Sergio, 2009. "Comparing IV with Structural Models: What Simple IV Can and Cannot Identify," IZA Discussion Papers 3980, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Arellano, M & Carrasco, R, 1996.
"Binary Choice Panel Data Models with Predetermined Variables,"
9618, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Arellano, Manuel & Carrasco, Raquel, 2003. "Binary choice panel data models with predetermined variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 125-157, July.
- Duncan Thomas & Elizabeth Frankenberg & James P. Smith, 2000.
"Lost But Not Forgotten: Attrition and Follow-up in the Indonesian Family Life Survey,"
00-03, RAND Corporation.
- Duncan Thomas & Elizabeth Frankenberg & James P. Smith, 2001. "Lost but Not Forgotten: Attrition and Follow-up in the Indonesia Family Life Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(3), pages 556-592.
- Thomas, D. & Frankenberg, E. & Smith, J.P., 2000. "Lost But Not Forgotten Attribution and Follow-up in the Indonesian Family Life Survey," Papers 00-03, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
- Duncan Thomas & Elizabeth Frankenberg & James P. Smith, 2004. "Lost but Not Forgotten: Attrition and Follow-up in the Indonesia Family Life Survey," Labor and Demography 0408007, EconWPA.
- Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oster, Emily, 2012.
"HIV and sexual behavior change: Why not Africa?,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 35-49.
- Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September.
- Mechoulan Stéphane, 2004. "HIV Testing: a Trojan Horse?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, August.
- Rebecca L. Thornton, 2008. "The Demand for, and Impact of, Learning HIV Status," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1829-63, December.
- Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2012. "The Impact of HIV Testing on Subjective Expectations and Risky Behavior in Malawi," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 1011-1036, August.
- Chamberlain, Gary, 1987. "Asymptotic efficiency in estimation with conditional moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 305-334, March.
- Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 549-573.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pen:papers:11-033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dolly Guarini)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.