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An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic

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Abstract

Eleven percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used one quarter of the time. A choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed to analyze the Malawian epidemic. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The analysis suggests that the efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and general equilibrium effects that are typically absent in epidemiological studies and small-scale field experiments. For some interventions (some forms of promoting condoms or marriage), the quantitative exercise suggests that these effects may increase HIV prevalence, while for others (such as male circumcision or increased incomes) they strengthen the effectiveness of the intervention. The underlying channels giving rise to these effects are discussed in detail.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Greenwood & Philipp Kircher & Cezar Santos & Michele Tertilt, 2013. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 20, Economie d'Avant Garde.
  • Handle: RePEc:eag:rereps:20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2013-04-16 02:45:56

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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Adda, 2016. "Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases: Evidence from High Frequency Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(2), pages 891-941.
    2. Rodolfo Manuelli, 2011. "Disease and Development: The Role of Human Capital," Working Papers 2011-008, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    3. Yao, Yao, 2016. "Fertility and HIV risk in Africa," Working Paper Series 5342, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Giovanni Immordino & Francesco Flaviano Russo, 2012. "Regulating Prostitution: Theory and Evidence from Italy," CSEF Working Papers 308, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 12 Nov 2014.
    5. Bertocchi, Graziella & Dimico, Arcangelo, 2015. "The long-term determinants of female HIV infection in Africa: The slave trade, polygyny, and sexual behavior," QUCEH Working Paper Series 15-04, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    6. Aldashev, Gani & Baland, Jean-Marie, 2012. "Awareness and AIDS: A Political Economy Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 8908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Daniela Iorio & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2011. "Education, HIV Status, and Risky Sexual Behavior: How Much Does the Stage of the HIV Epidemic Matter?," Working Papers 624, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    8. Michèle Tertilt, 2012. "The Research Agenda: Michèle Tertilt on Gender in Macroeconomics," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), November.
    9. Leandro De Magalhães & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2015. "The Consumption, Income, and Wealth of the Poorest: Cross-Sectional Facts of Rural and Urban Sub-Saharan Africa for Macroeconomists," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 15/655, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    10. Jeremy Greenwood, 2011. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Jeremy Greenwood on DGE beyond Macroeconomics," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian learning; circumcision; condoms; disease transmission; HIV/AIDS; homo economicus; Malawi; marriage; policy intervention; sex markets; search; STDs;

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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