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Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic


  • Michael Kremer


Increased HIV risk creates incentives for people with low sexual activity to reduce their activity, but may make high-activity people fatalistic, leading them to reduce their activity only slightly, or actually increase it. If high-activity people reduce their activity by a smaller proportion than low-activity people, the composition of the pool of available partners will worsen, creating positive feedbacks, and possibly multiple steady state levels of prevalence. The timing of public health efforts may affect long-run HIV prevalence.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5428
    Note: HE

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Boozer, M. & Philipson, T., 1996. "The Private Demand for Information and the Effects of Public Testing Programs: The Case of HIV," Papers 750, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    2. Russell Cooper & Andrew John, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-463.
    3. Avner Ahituv & V. Joseph Hotz & Tomas Philipson, "undated". "Will the AIDS Epidemic be Self-Limiting? Evidence on the Responsiveness of the Demand for Condoms to the Prevalence of AIDS," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 93-3, Chicago - Population Research Center.
    4. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
    5. Michael Kremer, 1994. "Can Having Fewer Partners Increase Prevalence of Aids?," NBER Working Papers 4942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • O0 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General


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