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Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic

  • Michael Kremer

Increased HIV risk creates incentives for people with low sexual activity to reduce their activity, but may make high-activity people fatalistic, leading them to reduce their activity only slightly, or actually increase it. If high-activity people reduce their activity by a smaller proportion than low-activity people, the composition of the pool of available partners will worsen, creating positive feedbacks, and possibly multiple steady state levels of prevalence. The timing of public health efforts may affect long-run HIV prevalence.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5428.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5428.

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Date of creation: Jan 1996
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Publication status: published as The Quarterly Journal Of Economics, Volume CXI, Issue 2 (May 1996): 549-573.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5428
Note: HE
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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Web page: http://www.nber.org
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  1. Avner Ahituv & V. Joseph Hotz & Tomas Philipson, 1994. "Will the AIDS Epidemic be Self-Limiting? Evidence on the Responsiveness of the Demand for Condoms to the Prevalence of AIDS," Working Papers 9401, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
  2. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
  3. Akerlof, George A, 1970. "The Market for 'Lemons': Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500, August.
  4. Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August.
  5. Michael Kremer, 1994. "Can Having Fewer Partners Increase Prevalence of Aids?," NBER Working Papers 4942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Boozer, M. & Philipson, T., 1996. "The Private Demand for Information and the Effects of Public Testing Programs: The Case of HIV," Papers 750, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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