Recurrent Infection and Externalities in Prevention
This paper studies a model of disease propagation in which agents can control their exposure to infection by engaging in costly preventive behavior. Agents are assumed to be fully rational, strategically sophisticated and forward-looking. I show that on the transition path, optimal behavior is Markovian, stationary and myopic and there are no contemporaneous externalities. In steady state, in which infection is endemic, there are strategic substitutes. Individuals over-expose themselves to infection, leading to sub-optimally high steady state disease prevalence. Infectivity-reducing measures such as pre-exposure prophylaxis lead to strictly worse steady state levels of disease prevalence. While revealed preferences show that the first-best level of welfare must increase, rational disinhibition, which makes increased exposure to infection a rational response to such measures, may lead to decreased welfare under decentralization.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Aadland David & Finnoff David C. & Huang Kevin X.D., 2013.
The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy,
De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 297-348, June.
- Aadland David & Finnoff David C. & Huang Kevin X.D., 2013. "Syphilis Cycles," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 297-348, June.
- Aadland, David & Finnoff, David, 2007. "Syphilis Cycles," MPRA Paper 8722, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David Aadland & David Finnoff & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2010. "Syphilis Cycles," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 1006, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
- David Aadland, 2008. "Syphilis Cycles," 2008 Meeting Papers 363, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Emily Oster, 2005. "Sexually Transmitted Infections, Sexual Behavior, and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 467-515.
- Scott Barrett, 2003. "Global Disease Eradication," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 591-600, 04/05.
- Francis, Peter J., 1997. "Dynamic epidemiology and the market for vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 383-406, February.
- Goldman Steven Marc & Lightwood James, 2002. "Cost Optimization in the SIS Model of Infectious Disease with Treatment," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-24, April.
- Goldman, Steven M. & Lightwood, James, 1996. "Cost Optimization in the SIS Model of Infectious Disease with Treatment," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0r88q87t, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Steven M. Goldman and James Lightwood., 1996. "Cost Optimization in the SIS Model of Infectious Disease with Treatment," Economics Working Papers 96-245, University of California at Berkeley.
- Mark Gersovitz & Jeffrey S. Hammer, 2004. "The Economical Control of Infectious Diseases," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(492), pages 1-27, 01.
- Gersovitz, Mark & Hammer, Jeffrey S., 2001. "The economic control of infectious diseases," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2607, The World Bank.
- Oster, Emily, 2012. "HIV and sexual behavior change: Why not Africa?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 35-49.
- Emily Oster, 2007. "HIV and Sexual Behavior Change: Why Not Africa?," NBER Working Papers 13049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Auld M. Christopher, 2006. "Estimating Behavioral Response to the AIDS Epidemic," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-29, April.
- Avner Ahituv & V. Joseph Hotz & Tomas Philipson, 1996. "The Responsiveness of the Demand for Condoms to the Local Prevalence of AIDS," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(4), pages 869-897.
- Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Philipson, Tomas, 1996. "Rational Epidemics and Their Public Control," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 603-624, August.
- Geoffard, P.Y. & Philipson, T., 1995. "Rational Epidemics and their Public Control," DELTA Working Papers 95-15, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Francis, P.J. Peter J., 2004. "Optimal tax/subsidy combinations for the flu season," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2037-2054, September.
- Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Philipson, Tomas, 1997. "Disease Eradication: Private versus Public Vaccination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 222-230, March.
- Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 549-573.
- Boulier Bryan L. & Datta Tejwant S. & Goldfarb Robert S, 2007. "Vaccination Externalities," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, May.
- Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2010. "Infection, Acquired Immunity and Externalities in Treatment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hartl, Richard F., 1987. "A simple proof of the monotonicity of the state trajectories in autonomous control problems," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 211-215, February.
- Brito, Dagobert L. & Sheshinski, Eytan & Intriligator, Michael D., 1991. "Externalities and compulsary vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-90, June.
- Auld, M. Christopher, 2003. "Choices, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 361-377, May.