IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/restat/v106y2024i4p895-909.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal Vaccine Subsidies for Epidemic Diseases

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Goodkin-Gold

    (Harvard University)

  • Michael Kremer

    (University of Chicago and NBER)

  • Christopher M. Snyder

    (Dartmouth College and NBER)

  • Heidi Williams

    (Dartmouth College and NBER)

Abstract

We analyze optimal vaccine subsidies in a model integrating disease epidemiology into a market with rational economic agents. The focus is on an intensive vaccine campaign to quell an epidemic in the short run. Across a range of market structures, positive vaccine externalities and optimal subsidies peak for diseases that spread quickly, but not so quickly that everyone is driven to be vaccinated. We assess the practical relevance of this peak—as well as the existence of increasing social returns to vaccination and optimality of universal vaccination—in calibrations to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Goodkin-Gold & Michael Kremer & Christopher M. Snyder & Heidi Williams, 2024. "Optimal Vaccine Subsidies for Epidemic Diseases," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 895-909, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:106:y:2024:i:4:p:895-909
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01202
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01202
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1162/rest_a_01202?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Galeotti & Brian W. Rogers, 2013. "Strategic Immunization and Group Structure," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-32, May.
    2. Joshua S. Gans, 2022. "The Economic Consequences of R= 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 14(1), pages 3-25, April.
    3. Philipson, Tomas, 2000. "Economic epidemiology and infectious diseases," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 33, pages 1761-1799, Elsevier.
    4. Francis, Peter J., 1997. "Dynamic epidemiology and the market for vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 383-406, February.
    5. Caitlin E Kennedy & Ping Teresa Yeh & Kaitlyn Atkins & Virginia A Fonner & Michael D Sweat & Kevin R O’Reilly & George W Rutherford & Rachel Baggaley & Julia Samuelson, 2020. "Economic compensation interventions to increase uptake of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention: A systematic review and meta-analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, January.
    6. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    7. Mark Gersovitz & Jeffrey S. Hammer, 2004. "The Economical Control of Infectious Diseases," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(492), pages 1-27, January.
    8. David McAdams, 2021. "The Blossoming of Economic Epidemiology," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 539-570, August.
    9. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    10. Flavio Toxvaerd, 2019. "Rational Disinhibition And Externalities In Prevention," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1737-1755, November.
    11. Gersovitz, Mark & Hammer, Jeffrey S., 2005. "Tax/subsidy policies toward vector-borne infectious diseases," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 647-674, April.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Ali Makhdoumi & Azarakhsh Malekian & Asuman Ozdaglar, 2024. "Testing, Voluntary Social Distancing, and the Spread of an Infection," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 72(2), pages 533-548, March.
    13. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Amit Khandelwal & Wookun Kim & Cristiano Mantovani & Edouard Schaal, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 503-522, December.
    14. Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Mandating vaccination with unknown indirect effects," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 19(3), pages 603-619, June.
    15. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    16. Charles F. Manski, 2021. "Vaccination Planning under Uncertainty, with Application to Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 28446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Fernando Alvarez & David Argente & Francesco Lippi, 2021. "A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lock-down, Testing, and Tracing," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 367-382, September.
    18. Andrew G. Atkeson & Karen Kopecky & Tao Zha, 2021. "Behavior and the Transmission of COVID-19," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 356-360, May.
    19. Kremer, Michael & Snyder, Christopher, 2018. "Preventives Versus Treatments Redux: Tighter Bounds on Distortions in Innovation Incentives with an Application to the Global D," CEPR Discussion Papers 12751, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Michael Kremer & Christopher M. Snyder, 2018. "Preventives Versus Treatments Redux: Tighter Bounds on Distortions in Innovation Incentives with an Application to the Global Demand for HIV Pharmaceuticals," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 53(1), pages 235-273, August.
    21. Peltzman, Sam, 1975. "The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 677-725, August.
    22. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 549-573.
    23. Amy Finkelstein, 2004. "Static and Dynamic Effects of Health Policy: Evidence from the Vaccine Industry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(2), pages 527-564.
    24. Boulier Bryan L. & Datta Tejwant S. & Goldfarb Robert S, 2007. "Vaccination Externalities," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, May.
    25. Adida, Elodie & Dey, Debabrata & Mamani, Hamed, 2013. "Operational issues and network effects in vaccine markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 414-427.
    26. David McAdams, 2020. "Nash SIR: An Economic-Epidemiological Model of Strategic Behavior During a Viral Epidemic," Papers 2006.10109, arXiv.org.
    27. Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 5428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2020. "An Economist's Guide to Epidemiology Models of Infectious Disease," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 79-104, Fall.
    29. Christopher Avery, 2021. "A Simple Model of Social Distancing and Vaccination," NBER Working Papers 29463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Andrew Atkeson & Karen Kopecky & Tao Zha, 2020. "Estimating and Forecasting Disease Scenarios for COVID-19 with an SIR Model," NBER Working Papers 27335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Glenn Ellison, 2020. "Implications of Heterogeneous SIR Models for Analyses of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Callum Jones & Thomas Philippon & Venky Venkateswaran, 2021. "Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home [A simple planning problem for covid-19 lockdown]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5188-5223.
    33. Michael Kremer & Christopher M. Snyder, 2015. "Preventives Versus Treatments," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1167-1239.
    34. Brito, Dagobert L. & Sheshinski, Eytan & Intriligator, Michael D., 1991. "Externalities and compulsary vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-90, June.
    35. Fenichel, Eli P., 2013. "Economic considerations for social distancing and behavioral based policies during an epidemic," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 440-451.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Romans Pancs, 2024. "A vaccine auction," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 28(4), pages 763-780, December.
    2. Wang, Fan & Xu, Danni & Zhuo, Xiaopo & Zhang, Chao & Liu, Yaoqi, 2022. "Improving consumer welfare in vaccine market: Pricing, government subsidies and consumer awareness," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Xu, Danni & Wang, Fan & Zhuo, Xiaopo & Liu, Yaoqi, 2024. "The performance of government subsidy schemes in a competitive vaccine market considering consumers' free-riding behavior," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carnehl, Christoph & Fukuda, Satoshi & Kos, Nenad, 2023. "Epidemics with behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    2. Joshua S. Gans, 2022. "The Economic Consequences of R= 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 14(1), pages 3-25, April.
    3. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    4. repec:osf:socarx:yxdc5_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Boucekkine, Raouf & Chakraborty, Shankha & Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin, 2024. "Economic epidemiological modelling: A progress report," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Yasushi Iwamoto, 2021. "Welfare economics of managing an epidemic: an exposition," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 537-579, October.
    7. Glenn Ellison, 2024. "Implications of heterogeneous SIR models for analyses of COVID-19," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 28(4), pages 651-687, December.
    8. Dasaratha, Krishna, 2023. "Virus dynamics with behavioral responses," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    9. McAdams, David & Song, Yangbo & Zou, Dihan, 2023. "Equilibrium social activity during an epidemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    10. Matthew Goodkin-Gold & Michael Kremer & Christopher M. Snyder & Heidi L. Williams, 2020. "Optimal Vaccine Subsidies for Endemic and Epidemic Diseases," Working Papers 2020-162, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    11. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    12. Christopher Avery, 2024. "The economics of social distancing and vaccination," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 28(4), pages 781-812, December.
    13. Rikard Forslid & Mathias Herzing, 2015. "On the Optimal Production Capacity for Influenza Vaccine," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 726-741, June.
    14. Yinon Bar-On & Tatiana Baron & Ofer Cornfeld & Eran Yashiv, 2023. "When to Lock, Not Whom: Managing Epidemics Using Time-Based Restrictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 292-321, December.
    15. Davide Bosco & Luca Portoghese, 2024. "Complementarity, Congestion and Information Design in Epidemics with Strategic Social Behaviour," DEM Working Papers Series 218, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    16. Luca Gori & Cristiana Mammana & Piero Manfredi & Elisabetta Michetti, 2022. "Economic development with deadly communicable diseases and public prevention," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 912-943, October.
    17. Brotherhood, Luiz & Cavalcanti, Tiago & Da Mata, Daniel & Santos, Cezar, 2022. "Slums and pandemics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    18. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    19. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    20. Miguel Casares & Paul Gomme & Hashmat Khan, 2022. "COVID‐19 pandemic and economic scenarios for Ontario," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 503-539, February.
    21. Yinon Bar-On & Tatiana Baron & Ofer Cornfeld & Eran Yashiv, 2023. "When to Lock, Not Whom: Managing Epidemics Using Time-Based Restrictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 292-321, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D42 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Monopoly

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:106:y:2024:i:4:p:895-909. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The MIT Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.