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Epidemics With Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Kos, Nenad
  • Fukuda, Satoshi
  • Carnehl, Christoph

Abstract

We study social distancing in an epidemiological model. Distancing reduces the individual’s probability of getting infected but comes at a cost. Equilibrium distancing flattens the curve and decreases the final size of the epidemic. We examine the effects of distancing on the outset, the peak, and the final size of the epidemic. Our results suggest that public policies that decrease the transmission rate can lead to unintended negative consequences in the short run but not in the long run. Therefore, it is important to distinguish between the interventions that affect the transmission rate and the interventions that affect contact rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Kos, Nenad & Fukuda, Satoshi & Carnehl, Christoph, 2021. "Epidemics With Behavior," CEPR Discussion Papers 16429, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16429
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christopher Norio Avery & David McAdams, 2025. "The economics of epidemics: introduction to the special issue, part two," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 29(1), pages 1-7, February.
    3. Christoph Carnehl & Satoshi Fukuda & Nenad Kos, 2022. "Time-varying Cost of Distancing: Distancing Fatigue and Lockdowns," Papers 2206.03847, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    4. Chang Zhai & Ping Chen & Zhuo Jin & David Pitt, 2025. "Optimising pandemic response through vaccination strategies using neural networks," Papers 2511.16932, arXiv.org.
    5. Thomas Tröger, 2025. "Optimal testing and social distancing of individuals with private health signals," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 29(1), pages 149-189, February.
    6. David McAdams & Troy Day, 2025. "The political economy of epidemic management," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 29(1), pages 115-148, February.
    7. Hippolyte d’Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Dramane Coulibaly & Rodolphe Desbordes, 2024. "Covid-19 and mobility: determinant or consequence?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 261-282, February.
    8. Alexander Dietrich & Wilhelm Kohler & Gernot Müller, 2025. "Pandemics, public policy, and Peltzman effects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(3), pages 889-910, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games

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