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The Economic Consequences of R= 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics

Author

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  • Joshua S. Gans

    ("Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto and NBER")

Abstract

"This paper reviews the literature on incorporating behavioural elements into epidemiological models of pandemics. While modelling behaviour by forward-looking rational agents can provide some insight into the time paths of pandemics, the non-stationary nature of Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) models of viral spread makes characterisation of resulting equilibria difficult. Here I posit a shortcut that can be deployed to allow for a tractable equilibrium model of pandemics with intuitive comparative statics and also a clear prediction that effective reproduction numbers (that is, R) will tend towards 1 in equilibrium. This motivates taking R= 1 as an equilibrium starting point for analyses of pandemics with behavioural agents. The implications of this for the analysis of widespread testing, tracing, isolation and mask-use is discussed."

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua S. Gans, 2022. "The Economic Consequences of R= 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 14(1), pages 3-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ren:journl:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:3-25
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v14i1
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Goodkin-Gold & Michael Kremer & Christopher M. Snyder & Heidi Williams, 2024. "Optimal Vaccine Subsidies for Epidemic Diseases," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 895-909, July.
    2. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2022. "A macroeconomic model of an epidemic with silent transmission and endogenous self‐isolation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 581-625, February.
    3. Łukasz Rachel, 2020. "An Analytical Model of Covid-19 Lockdowns," Discussion Papers 2029, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Thomas Ash & Antonio M. Bento & Daniel Kaffine & Akhil Rao & Ana I. Bento, 2022. "Author Correction: Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative epidemic control strategies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-1, December.
    5. Joshua S. Gans, 2023. "Vaccine Hesitancy, Passports, And The Demand For Vaccination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 641-652, May.
    6. Joshua S. Gans, 2022. "Test sensitivity for infection versus infectiousness of SARS‐CoV‐2," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1880-1887, September.
    7. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "JUE insight: Learning epidemiology by doing: The empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Shibamoto, Masahiko & Hayaki, Shoka & Ogisu, Yoshitaka, 2022. "COVID-19 infection spread and human mobility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Andrew G. Atkeson & Karen Kopecky & Tao Zha, 2021. "Behavior and the Transmission of COVID-19," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 356-360, May.
    10. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    11. Palatella, Luigi & Vanni, Fabio & Lambert, David, 2021. "A phenomenological estimate of the true scale of CoViD-19 from primary data," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Thomas Hellmann & Veikko Thiele, 2022. "A theory of voluntary testing and self‐isolation in an ongoing pandemic," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 873-911, October.
    13. Kremer, Michael & Więcek, Witold & Ahuja, Amrita & Simoes Gomes Junior, Alexandre & Snyder, Christopher & Tabarrok, Alex & Tan, Brandon, 2021. "Could Vaccine Dose Stretching Reduce COVID-19 Deaths?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16324, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    14. Christopher Avery, 2024. "The economics of social distancing and vaccination," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 28(4), pages 781-812, December.
    15. Christopher Avery, 2021. "A Simple Model of Social Distancing and Vaccination," NBER Working Papers 29463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Cherry, Todd L. & James, Alexander G. & Murphy, James, 2021. "The impact of public health messaging and personal experience on the acceptance of mask wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 415-430.

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    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets

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