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A phenomenological estimate of the true scale of CoViD-19 from primary data

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  • Palatella, Luigi
  • Vanni, Fabio
  • Lambert, David

Abstract

Estimation of the prevalence of undocumented SARS-CoV-2 infections is critical for understanding the overall impact of CoViD-19, and for implementing effective public policy intervention strategies. We discuss a simple yet effective approach to estimate the true number of people infected by SARS-CoV-2, using raw epidemiological data reported by official health institutions in the largest EU countries and the USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Palatella, Luigi & Vanni, Fabio & Lambert, David, 2021. "A phenomenological estimate of the true scale of CoViD-19 from primary data," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:146:y:2021:i:c:s0960077921002071
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110854
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katelyn M Gostic & Lauren McGough & Edward B Baskerville & Sam Abbott & Keya Joshi & Christine Tedijanto & Rebecca Kahn & Rene Niehus & James A Hay & Pablo M De Salazar & Joel Hellewell & Sophie Meaki, 2020. "Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Gans, Joshua Samuel, 2020. "The Economic Consequences of R=1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics," SocArXiv yxdc5, Center for Open Science.
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    Cited by:

    1. Honoria Ocagli & Danila Azzolina & Giulia Lorenzoni & Silvia Gallipoli & Matteo Martinato & Aslihan S. Acar & Paola Berchialla & Dario Gregori & on behalf of the INCIDENT Study Group, 2021. "Using Social Networks to Estimate the Number of COVID-19 Cases: The Incident (Hidden COVID-19 Cases Network Estimation) Study Protocol," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-12, May.
    2. Fabio Vanni & David Lambert, 2021. "On the regularity of human mobility patterns at times of a pandemic," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04103882, HAL.
    3. Fabio Vanni & David Lambert, 2021. "On the regularity of human mobility patterns at times of a pandemic," Papers 2104.08975, arXiv.org.

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