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A dynamic causal modeling of the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Bilancia

    (University of Bari Aldo Moro)

  • Domenico Vitale

    (University of Roma La Sapienza)

  • Fabio Manca

    (University of Bari Aldo Moro)

  • Paola Perchinunno

    (University of Bari Aldo Moro)

  • Luigi Santacroce

    (University of Bari Aldo Moro)

Abstract

While the vaccination campaign against COVID-19 is having its positive impact, we retrospectively analyze the causal impact of some decisions made by the Italian government on the second outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Italy, when no vaccine was available. First, we analyze the causal impact of reopenings after the first lockdown in 2020. In addition, we also analyze the impact of reopening schools in September 2020. Our results provide an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the causal relationship between the relaxation of restrictions and the transmission in the community of a highly contagious respiratory virus that causes severe illness in the absence of prophylactic vaccination programs. We present a purely data-analytic approach based on a Bayesian methodology and discuss possible interpretations of the results obtained and implications for policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Bilancia & Domenico Vitale & Fabio Manca & Paola Perchinunno & Luigi Santacroce, 2024. "A dynamic causal modeling of the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 108(1), pages 1-30, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:108:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10182-023-00469-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10182-023-00469-9
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