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Virus dynamics with behavioral responses

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  • Dasaratha, Krishna

Abstract

Motivated by epidemics such as COVID-19, we study the spread of a contagious disease when behavior responds to the disease's prevalence. We extend the SIR epidemiological model to include endogenous meeting rates. Individuals benefit from economic activity, but activity involves interactions with potentially infected individuals. The main focus is a theoretical analysis of contagion dynamics and behavioral responses to changes in risk. We obtain a simple condition for when public-health interventions or variants of a disease will have paradoxical effects on infection rates due to risk compensation. Behavioral responses are most likely to undermine public-health interventions near the peak of severe diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Dasaratha, Krishna, 2023. "Virus dynamics with behavioral responses," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:214:y:2023:i:c:s0022053123001357
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2023.105739
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemics; Social distancing; Risk compensation; SIR; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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