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Optimal Age-Based Vaccination and Economic Mitigation Policies for the Second Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

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  • Andrew Glover
  • Jonathan Heathcote
  • Dirk Krueger
  • José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

Abstract

In this paper we ask how to best allocate a given time-varying supply of vaccines during the second phase of the Covid-19 pandemic across individuals of different ages. Building on the heterogeneous household model of optimal economic mitigation and redistribution developed by Glover et al. (2021), we contrast the actual vaccine deployment path that prioritized older individuals with one that first vaccinates younger workers. Vaccinating older adults first saves more lives but slows the economic recovery relative to inoculating younger adults first. Vaccines carry large welfare benefits in both scenarios (relative to a world without vaccines), but the older-first policy is optimal under a utilitarian social welfare function.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Glover & Jonathan Heathcote & Dirk Krueger & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2021. "Optimal Age-Based Vaccination and Economic Mitigation Policies for the Second Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Research Working Paper RWP 21-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:93598
    DOI: 10.18651/RWP2021-15
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    Cited by:

    1. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    2. Luca Gori & Piero Manfredi & Simone Marsiglio & Mauro Sodini, 2023. "A parsimonious model of optimal social distancing and vaccination during an outbreak," Discussion Papers 2023/292, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2023. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13295, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Jaccard, Ivan, 2022. "The trade-off between public health and the economy in the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2690, European Central Bank.
    5. Davids, Allan & du Rand, Gideon & Georg, Co-Pierre & Koziol, Tina & Schasfoort, Joeri, 2023. "Social learning in a network model of Covid-19," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 271-304.
    6. Peng, Tao & Chan , Ying Tung & Minetti, Raoul, 2023. "The Macroeconomics of the Covid-19 Epidemic: The Case of China," Working Papers 2023-2, Michigan State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Federico, Salvatore & Ferrari, Giorgio & Torrente, Maria-Laura, 2022. "Optimal Vaccination in a SIRS Epidemic Model," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 667, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    8. Brotherhood, Luiz & Santos, Cezar, 2022. "Vaccines and variants: A comment on “optimal age-based vaccination and economic mitigation policies for the second phase of the Covid-19 pandemic”," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Boppart, Timo & Harmenberg, Karl & Krusell, Per & Olsson, Jonna, 2022. "Integrated epi-econ assessment of vaccination," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Vaccination paths;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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