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Optimal Contact Tracing and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress A New Infectious Disease

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  • Stefan Pollinger

Abstract

This paper studies the suppression of an infectious disease in the canonical susceptible-infectious-recovered model. It derives three results. First, if technically feasible, the optimal response to a sufficiently small outbreak is halting transmissions instead of building up immunity through infections. Second, the crucial trade-off is not between health and economic costs, but between the intensity and duration of control measures. A simple formula of observables characterises the optimum. Third, the total cost depends critically on the efficiency of contact tracing, since it allows relaxing costly social distancing without increasing transmissions. A calibration to the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the theoretical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Pollinger, 2023. "Optimal Contact Tracing and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress A New Infectious Disease," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(654), pages 2483-2503.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:133:y:2023:i:654:p:2483-2503.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/uead024
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    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2025. "A tractable model of epidemic control and equilibrium dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    2. Alessandro Calvia & Fausto Gozzi & Francesco Lippi & Giovanni Zanco, 2024. "A simple planning problem for COVID-19 lockdown: a dynamic programming approach," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 169-196, February.
    3. Lukasz Rachel, 2025. "The second wave," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 29(1), pages 87-113, February.
    4. Deiana, Claudio & Geraci, Andrea & Mastrobuoni, Giovanni & Weidenholzer, Simon, 2025. "Running the risk: Immunity and mobility in response to a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

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