IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcr/wpaper/e223.html

Lockdown Policy Rules with a Hospital Capacity Constraint

Author

Listed:
  • Hongtao Li
  • Taisuke Nakata
  • Hiroki Sakamoto
  • Hiroyuki Uneya

Abstract

We analyze how hospital capacity affects health and economic outcomes during a pandemic using a macro-SIR model featuring a lockdown policy rule. The rule instructs the government to implement a lockdown when the number of ICU patients exceeds a trigger threshold---motivated broadly by a hospital capacity constraint---and to lift the lockdown when it falls below a lifting threshold. When vaccines are not available, we find that the government can reduce both COVID-19 deaths and economic loss by raising the trigger threshold in some situations. When the vaccine rollout is expected to begin in the near future, we find that the government can reduce both COVID-19 deaths and economic loss by lowering the trigger threshold.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongtao Li & Taisuke Nakata & Hiroki Sakamoto & Hiroyuki Uneya, 2026. "Lockdown Policy Rules with a Hospital Capacity Constraint," Working Papers e223, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e223
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcer.or.jp/wp/pdf/e223.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk, 2022. "Optimal age-Based vaccination and economic mitigation policies for the second phase of the covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Hosono, Kaoru, 2021. "Epidemic and Economic Consequences of Voluntary and Request-based Lockdowns in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Daisuke Fujii & Taisuke Nakata, 2021. "COVID-19 and output in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 609-650, October.
    4. Natali Hritonenko & Yuri Yatsenko, 2024. "Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic–epidemic model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 235-259, February.
    5. Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu & Manh-Hung Nguyen, 2024. "Modelling optimal lockdowns with waning immunity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 197-234, February.
    6. Caulkins, Jonathan P. & Grass, Dieter & Feichtinger, Gustav & Hartl, Richard F. & Kort, Peter M. & Prskawetz, Alexia & Seidl, Andrea & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2021. "The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Miclo, Laurent & Spiro, Daniel & Weibull, Jörgen, 2022. "Optimal epidemic suppression under an ICU constraint: An analytical solution," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    8. Moll, Benjamin & Kaplan, Greg & Violante, Giovanni, 2020. "The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 15256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    11. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Amit Khandelwal & Wookun Kim & Cristiano Mantovani & Edouard Schaal, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 503-522, December.
    12. Loertscher, Simon & Muir, Ellen V., 2021. "Road to recovery: Managing an epidemic," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    13. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Fabien Prieur & Weihua Ruan & Benteng Zou, 2024. "Optimal lockdown and vaccination policies to contain the spread of a mutating infectious disease," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 75-126, February.
    15. Haoxiang Yang & Özge Sürer & Daniel Duque & David P. Morton & Bismark Singh & Spencer J. Fox & Remy Pasco & Kelly Pierce & Paul Rathouz & Victoria Valencia & Zhanwei Du & Michael Pignone & Mark E. Esc, 2021. "Design of COVID-19 staged alert systems to ensure healthcare capacity with minimal closures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7, December.
    16. Callum Jones & Thomas Philippon & Venky Venkateswaran, 2021. "Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home [A simple planning problem for covid-19 lockdown]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5188-5223.
    17. Morita, Hiroshi & Ono, Taiki, 2024. "COVID-19 uncertainty index in Japan: Newspaper-based measures and economic activities," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 390-403.
    18. Casares, Miguel & Gomme, Paul & Khan, Hashmat, 2025. "Private versus social responses to a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    19. Robert S. Pindyck, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion," NBER Working Papers 27121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Alessandro Calvia & Fausto Gozzi & Francesco Lippi & Giovanni Zanco, 2024. "A simple planning problem for COVID-19 lockdown: a dynamic programming approach," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 169-196, February.
    21. Fabio Della Rossa & Davide Salzano & Anna Di Meglio & Francesco De Lellis & Marco Coraggio & Carmela Calabrese & Agostino Guarino & Ricardo Cardona-Rivera & Pietro De Lellis & Davide Liuzza & Francesc, 2020. "A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    22. So Kubota, 2021. "The macroeconomics of COVID-19 exit strategy: the case of Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 651-682, October.
    23. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beppu, Shotaro & Fujii, Daisuke & Kubota, Hiroyuki & Machi, Kohei & Maeda, Yuta & Nakata, Taisuke & Shibuya, Haruki, 2023. "Cross-regional heterogeneity in health and economic outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic: An analysis of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2025. "A tractable model of epidemic control and equilibrium dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Quentin Batista & Masakazu Emoto & Naoki Maezono & Taisuke Nakata, 2026. "Optimal Lockdown Policy with Virus Mutation," Working Papers e221, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    4. Boucekkine, Raouf & Chakraborty, Shankha & Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin, 2024. "Economic epidemiological modelling: A progress report," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Mart n Gonzales-Eiras, Dirk Niepelt, 2023. "Optimal Epidemic Control," Diskussionsschriften dp2311, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    6. Yasushi Iwamoto, 2021. "Welfare economics of managing an epidemic: an exposition," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 537-579, October.
    7. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    8. Timo Boppart & Karl Harmenberg & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Jonna Olsson, 2025. "Integrated epi‐econ assessment: Quantitative theory," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), pages 89-131, January.
    9. Lukasz Rachel, 2025. "The second wave," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 29(1), pages 87-113, February.
    10. So Kubota, 2021. "The macroeconomics of COVID-19 exit strategy: the case of Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 651-682, October.
    11. Matthew Goodkin-Gold & Michael Kremer & Christopher M. Snyder & Heidi Williams, 2024. "Optimal Vaccine Subsidies for Epidemic Diseases," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 895-909, July.
    12. Gopal K. Basak & Chandramauli Chakraborty & Pranab Kumar Das, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown Strategy in a Pandemic: An Exploratory Analysis for Covid-19," Papers 2109.02512, arXiv.org.
    13. Hausmann, Ricardo & Schetter, Ulrich, 2022. "Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: Poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    14. Martin Gonzalez-Eiras & Dirk Niepelt, 2020. "Optimally Controlling an Epidemic," Working Papers 20.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    15. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk, 2022. "Optimal age-Based vaccination and economic mitigation policies for the second phase of the covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    16. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2022. "Self-fulfilling Lockdowns in a Simple SIR-Macro Model," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1183, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    17. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michèle, 2023. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13295, Inter-American Development Bank.
    18. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michele, 2024. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2024012, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    19. Julliard, Christian & Shi, Ran & Yuan, Kathy, 2023. "The spread of COVID-19 in London: Network effects and optimal lockdowns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2125-2154.
    20. Caulkins, J.P. & Grass, D. & Feichtinger, G. & Hartl, R.F. & Kort, P.M. & Kuhn, M. & Prskawetz, A. & Sanchez-Romero, M. & Seidl, A. & Wrzaczek, S., 2023. "The hammer and the jab: Are COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccinations complements or substitutes?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 233-250.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tctokjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.