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An economic model of the Covid-19 pandemic with young and old agents: Behavior, testing and policies

Author

Listed:
  • Brotherhood, Luiz
  • Kircher, Philipp

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium)

  • Santos, Cezar
  • Tertilt, Michele

Abstract

This paper investigates the importance of the age composition in the Covid-19 pandemic. We augment a standard SIR epidemiological model with individual choices on work and non-work social distancing. Infected individuals are initially uncertain unless they are tested. We find that older individuals socially distance themselves substantially in equilibrium. An optimal lockdown then confines the young more. The strictness and economic costs of the optimal lockdown depend on whether or not individuals can telework. Testing and quarantines save lives, even if conducted just on the young. When some testing is available, the optimal lockdown is much lighter and GDP rises even compared with a no-policy benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michele, 2021. "An economic model of the Covid-19 pandemic with young and old agents: Behavior, testing and policies," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2021034, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2021034
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    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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