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An economic model of the Covid-19 pandemic with young and old agents: Behavior, testing and policies

Author

Listed:
  • Brotherhood, Luiz
  • Kircher, Philipp

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium)

  • Santos, Cezar
  • Tertilt, Michele

Abstract

This paper investigates the importance of the age composition in the Covid-19 pandemic. We augment a standard SIR epidemiological model with individual choices on work and non-work social distancing. Infected individuals are initially uncertain unless they are tested. We find that older individuals socially distance themselves substantially in equilibrium. An optimal lockdown then confines the young more. The strictness and economic costs of the optimal lockdown depend on whether or not individuals can telework. Testing and quarantines save lives, even if conducted just on the young. When some testing is available, the optimal lockdown is much lighter and GDP rises even compared with a no-policy benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michele, 2021. "An economic model of the Covid-19 pandemic with young and old agents: Behavior, testing and policies," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2021034, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2021034
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen A. Kopecky, 2022. "The Downward Spiral," NBER Working Papers 29764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stefan Pollinger, 2023. "Optimal Contact Tracing and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress A New Infectious Disease," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(654), pages 2483-2503.
    3. Thuilliez, Josselin & Touré, Nouhoum, 2024. "Opinions and vaccination during an epidemic," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Pensieroso, Luca & Sommacal, Alessandro & Spolverini, Gaia, 2023. "Intergenerational coresidence and the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. Lester C Hunt & Anqi Zhang & Shuonan Zhang, 2022. "Recession and Recovery of the Pandemic," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2022-05, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    6. Alfaro, Laura & Faia, Ester & Lamersdorf, Nora & Saidi, Farzad, 2024. "Altruism, social interactions, and the course of a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    7. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk, 2022. "Optimal age-Based vaccination and economic mitigation policies for the second phase of the covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Bizzarri, Matteo & Panebianco, Fabrizio & Pin, Paolo, 2025. "Homophily and infections: Static and dynamic effects," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 235-259.
    9. Carnehl, Christoph & Fukuda, Satoshi & Kos, Nenad, 2023. "Epidemics with behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    10. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    11. Aleman, Christian & Iorio, Daniela & Santaeulà lia-Llopis, Raül, 2024. "A Quantitative Theory of the HIV Epidemic: Education, Risky Sex and Asymmetric Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 18733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Thomas Hellmann & Veikko Thiele, 2022. "A theory of voluntary testing and self‐isolation in an ongoing pandemic," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 873-911, October.
    13. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    14. Birinci, Serdar & Karahan, Fatih & Mercan, Yusuf & See, Kurt, 2021. "Labor market policies during an epidemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    15. Checo Ariadne & Grigoli Francesco & Mota Jose M., 2022. "Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 159-196, January.
    16. Nicholas W. Papageorge, 2021. "Modeling Behavior during a Pandemic: Using HIV as an Historical Analogy," NBER Working Papers 28898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Josselin Thuilliez & Nouhoum Touré, 2024. "Opinions and vaccination during an epidemic," Post-Print hal-04490900, HAL.
    18. Masciandaro, Donato & Goodhart, Charles & Ugolini, Stefano, 2021. "Pandemic recession and helicopter money: Venice, 1629–1631," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 300-318, December.
    19. Alexander Dietrich & Wilhelm Kohler & Gernot Müller, 2025. "Pandemics, public policy, and Peltzman effects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(3), pages 889-910, May.
    20. Jessica Carrick-Hagenbarth & Eric Edlund & Avanti Mukherjee, 2023. "Analysis of Hybrid Epidemiological-Economic Models of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 585-612, October.
    21. Nikhil Vellodi & Joshua Weiss, 2021. "Optimal Vaccine Policies: Spillovers and Incentives," Working Paper 21-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    22. Josselin Thuilliez & Nouhoum Touré, 2024. "Opinions and vaccination during an epidemic," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-04490900, HAL.
    23. Yinon Bar-On & Tatiana Baron & Ofer Cornfeld & Eran Yashiv, 2023. "When to Lock, Not Whom: Managing Epidemics Using Time-Based Restrictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 292-321, December.
    24. Brotherhood, Luiz & Jerbashian, Vahagn, 2023. "Firm behavior during an epidemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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