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The Welfare Cost of Vaccine Misallocation, Delays and Nationalism

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  • Gollier, Christian

Abstract

I calibrate an eco-epidemiological age-structured Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of the B.1.1.7 covid variant on the eve of the vaccination campaign in France, under a stop-and-go lockdown policy. Three-quarters of the welfare benefit of the vaccine can be achieved with a speed of 100,000 full vaccination per day. A 1-week delay in the vaccination campaign raises the death toll by approximately 2500, and it reduces wealth by 8 billion euros. Because of the large heterogeneity of the rates of hospitalization and mortality across age classes, it is critically important for the number of lives saved and for the economy to vaccinate older people first. Any departure from this policy has a welfare cost. Prioritizing the allocation of vaccines to the most vulnerable people save 70,000 seniors, but it also increases the death toll of younger people by 14,000. Vaccine nationalism is modeled by assuming two identical Frances, one with a vaccine production capacity and the other without it. If the production country vaccinates its entire population before exporting to the other, the global death toll would be increased by 20 %. I also measure the welfare impact of the strong French anti-vax movement, and of the prohibition of an immunity passport.

Suggested Citation

  • Gollier, Christian, 2021. "The Welfare Cost of Vaccine Misallocation, Delays and Nationalism," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 199-226, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jbcoan:v:12:y:2021:i:2:p:199-226_1
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    Cited by:

    1. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk, 2022. "Optimal age-Based vaccination and economic mitigation policies for the second phase of the covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Antony Taubman, 2022. "Solidarity As A Practical Craft: Cohesion And Cooperation In Leveraging Access To Medical Technologies Within And Beyond The Trips Agreement," Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 29(2), pages 19-45, November.
    3. Amelia Blamey & Ilan Noy, 2024. "Mistrust and Missed Shots: Trust and Covid-19 Vaccination Decisions," CESifo Working Paper Series 11134, CESifo.
    4. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    5. Rikard Forslid & Mathias Herzing, 2025. "Vaccination strategies for different contact patterns: weighing epidemiological against economic outcomes," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 131-157, March.
    6. Broekaert, Jan B. & La Torre, Davide & Hafiz, Faizal & Brusset, Xavier, 2025. "The diverging control policy’s hand in supranational supply chain reconfiguration," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    7. Domenico Delli Gatti & Severin Reissl & Enrico Turco, 2023. "V for vaccines and variants," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 991-1046, September.
    8. Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2022. "Impacts of Vaccination on International Trade During the Pandemic Era," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 60(4), pages 206-227, December.
    9. Broekaert, Jan B. & Hafiz, Faizal & Jayaraman, Raja & La Torre, Davide, 2025. "Managing resilience and viability of supranational supply chains under epidemic control scenarios," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Jan B. Broekaert & Davide La Torre & Faizal Hafiz, 2025. "The impact of the psychological effect of infectivity on Nash-balanced control strategies for epidemic networks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 351(3), pages 1743-1765, August.

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