IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jomega/v133y2025ics0305048324001981.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Managing resilience and viability of supranational supply chains under epidemic control scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Broekaert, Jan B.
  • Hafiz, Faizal
  • Jayaraman, Raja
  • La Torre, Davide

Abstract

A comprehensive model is presented to evaluate the resilience and viability of supranational supply chains under various epidemic control scenarios. The model integrates a multiplex network of socially connected individuals subjected to a probabilistic SEIRSD epidemic, as well as production configurations monitored for performance capacity. The epidemic evolution within this system depends on four primary cost factors: deployed control strategy, health policy implementation, the value of human life, and economic productivity loss due to the epidemic. These costs are adjusted for GDP differences between countries in the network and are influenced by factors such as the duration and severity of confinement, vaccination efficacy, and healthcare capacity. A Nash equilibrium analysis of SEIRSD load-based costs is employed to identify optimal control strategies. Time To Recovery (TTR) and Longitudinal Service Level (LSL) are used as metrics for assessing the resilience and viability of supply chains. The convergences and conflicts of control strategies are evaluated using TTR and LSL, providing insights into the impact of public health measures on supply chain performance. This methodology offers a framework for policymakers and supply chain managers to make informed decisions during prolonged epidemic conditions. Numerical simulations illustrate the conditions for convergence and conflict between epidemic control policies and supply chain objectives, highlighting the need for dynamic policy adjustments to ensure supply chain resilience and viability.

Suggested Citation

  • Broekaert, Jan B. & Hafiz, Faizal & Jayaraman, Raja & La Torre, Davide, 2025. "Managing resilience and viability of supranational supply chains under epidemic control scenarios," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:133:y:2025:i:c:s0305048324001981
    DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2024.103234
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305048324001981
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.omega.2024.103234?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khadija Echefaj & Abdelkabir Charkaoui & Anass Cherrafi & Dmitry Ivanov, 2024. "Design of resilient and viable sourcing strategies in intertwined circular supply networks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 337(1), pages 459-498, June.
    2. Scarpin, Marcia Regina Santiago & Scarpin, Jorge Eduardo & Krespi Musial, Nayane Thais & Nakamura, Wilson Toshiro, 2022. "The implications of COVID-19: Bullwhip and ripple effects in global supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    3. Aseem Kinra & Dmitry Ivanov & Ajay Das & Alexandre Dolgui, 2020. "Ripple effect quantification by supplier risk exposure assessment," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(18), pages 5559-5578, September.
    4. Sawik, Tadeusz, 2022. "Stochastic optimization of supply chain resilience under ripple effect: A COVID-19 pandemic related study," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Boucekkine, Raouf & Laffargue, Jean-Pierre, 2010. "On the distributional consequences of epidemics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 231-245, February.
    6. Dmitry Ivanov, 2024. "Two views of supply chain resilience," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(11), pages 4031-4045, June.
    7. Salarpour, Mojtaba & Nagurney, Anna, 2021. "A multicountry, multicommodity stochastic game theory network model of competition for medical supplies inspired by the Covid-19 pandemic," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    8. Burgos, Diana & Ivanov, Dmitry, 2021. "Food retail supply chain resilience and the COVID-19 pandemic: A digital twin-based impact analysis and improvement directions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. M. Punniyamoorthy & Sarin Abraham & Jose Joy Thoppan, 2023. "A Method to Select Best Among Multi-Nash Equilibria," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 11(1), pages 101-127, April.
    10. Li, Yuhong & Zobel, Christopher W., 2020. "Exploring supply chain network resilience in the presence of the ripple effect," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    11. Das, Saikat & Bose, Indranil & Sarkar, Uttam Kumar, 2023. "Predicting the outbreak of epidemics using a network-based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 819-831.
    12. Chen, Kexin & Pun, Chi Seng & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2023. "Efficient social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic: Integrating economic and public health considerations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 84-98.
    13. Gollier, Christian, 2021. "The Welfare Cost of Vaccine Misallocation, Delays and Nationalism," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 199-226, July.
    14. Nagurney, Anna, 2021. "Optimization of supply chain networks with inclusion of labor: Applications to COVID-19 pandemic disruptions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    15. Raouf Boucekkine & Andrés Carvajal & Shankha Chakraborty & Aditya Goenka, 2021. "The economics of epidemics and contagious diseases: An introduction," Post-Print hal-03164713, HAL.
    16. Mosayebi, Mohsen & Fathi, Michel & Hedayati, Mehrnaz Khalaj & Ivanov, Dmitry, 2024. "Time-to-Adapt (TTA)," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    17. Khadija Echefaj & Abdelkabir Charkaoui & Anass Cherrafi & Dmitry Ivanov, 2024. "Correction: Design of resilient and viable sourcing strategies in intertwined circular supply networks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(2), pages 1333-1334, October.
    18. Salomée Ruel & Jamal El Baz & Dmitry Ivanov & Ajay Das, 2024. "Supply chain viability: conceptualization, measurement, and nomological validation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 335(3), pages 1107-1136, April.
    19. Rozhkov, Maxim & Ivanov, Dmitry & Blackhurst, Jennifer & Nair, Anand, 2022. "Adapting supply chain operations in anticipation of and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    20. Wei Yang, 2021. "Modeling COVID-19 Pandemic with Hierarchical Quarantine and Time Delay," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 892-914, December.
    21. Alberto Godio & Francesca Pace & Andrea Vergnano, 2020. "SEIR Modeling of the Italian Epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 Using Computational Swarm Intelligence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-19, May.
    22. Nagurney, Anna, 2021. "Supply chain game theory network modeling under labor constraints: Applications to the Covid-19 pandemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 880-891.
    23. Claudius Gros & Roser Valenti & Lukas Schneider & Kilian Valenti & Daniel Gros, 2020. "Containment efficiency and control strategies for the Corona pandemic costs," Papers 2004.00493, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    24. Fonseca, Elize Massard da & Shadlen, Kenneth C. & Achcar, Helena de Moraes, 2023. "Vaccine technology transfer in a global health crisis: Actors, capabilities, and institutions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(4).
    25. Marco Ardolino & Andrea Bacchetti & Dmitry Ivanov, 2022. "Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impacts on manufacturing: a systematic literature review and future research agenda," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 551-566, June.
    26. Dmitry Ivanov, 2024. "Transformation of supply chain resilience research through the COVID-19 pandemic," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(23), pages 8217-8238, December.
    27. Nagurney, Anna & Flores, Emilio Alvarez & Soylu, Ceren, 2016. "A Generalized Nash Equilibrium network model for post-disaster humanitarian relief," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-18.
    28. Dmitry Ivanov & Alexandre Dolgui, 2020. "Viability of intertwined supply networks: extending the supply chain resilience angles towards survivability. A position paper motivated by COVID-19 outbreak," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(10), pages 2904-2915, May.
    29. Andy Dobson & Cristiano Ricci & Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Ted Loch-Temzelides & Mercedes Pascual, 2023. "Balancing economic and epidemiological interventions in the early stages of pathogen emergence," Post-Print hal-04150117, HAL.
    30. Ivanov, Dmitry, 2020. "Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    31. Kateryna Kravchenko & Tim Gruchmann & Marina Ivanova & Dmitry Ivanov, 2024. "Responding to the ripple effect from systemic disruptions: empirical evidence from the semiconductor shortage during COVID-19," Modern Supply Chain Research and Applications, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(4), pages 354-375, September.
    32. Rabah Amir & Raouf Boucekkine, 2022. "Introduction to the special issue on new insights into economic epidemiology: Theory and policy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 861-872, October.
    33. repec:hal:journl:hal-04111820 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Chowdhury, Md Maruf H. & Quaddus, Mohammed, 2017. "Supply chain resilience: Conceptualization and scale development using dynamic capability theory," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 185-204.
    35. Fouad El Ouardighi & Eugene Khmelnitsky & Suresh P. Sethi, 2022. "Epidemic control with endogenous treatment capability under popular discontent and social fatigue," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(4), pages 1734-1752, April.
    36. Brusset, Xavier & Ivanov, Dmitry & Jebali, Aida & La Torre, Davide & Repetto, Marco, 2023. "A dynamic approach to supply chain reconfiguration and ripple effect analysis in an epidemic," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    37. Ivanov, Dmitry, 2024. "Supply chain resilience: Conceptual and formal models drawing from immune system analogy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    38. Eryarsoy, Enes & Shahmanzari, Masoud & Tanrisever, Fehmi, 2023. "Models for government intervention during a pandemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 69-83.
    39. Alexandre Dolgui & Oleg Gusikhin & Dmitry Ivanov & Xingyu Li & Kathryn Stecke, 2024. "A network-of-networks adaptation for cross-industry manufacturing repurposing," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(6), pages 666-682, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Caibo & Song, Wenyan & Wang, Huiwen & Wang, Lihong, 2025. "Resilience Assessment of Supply Chain Networks Considering Continuously Varying Sates of Firms in Ripple Effect: A Comprehensive and Dynamic Operational-Structural Analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Zhan, Sha-lei & Ignatius, Joshua & Ng, Chi To & Chen, Daqiang, 2025. "Supply chain network viability: Managing disruption risk via dynamic data and interaction models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yılmaz, Ömer Faruk & Guan, Yongpei & Yılmaz, Beren Gürsoy & Yeni, Fatma Betül & Özçelik, Gökhan, 2025. "A comprehensive methodology combining machine learning and unified robust stochastic programming for medical supply chain viability," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Sawik, Tadeusz, 2025. "Economically viable reshoring of supply chains under ripple effect," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Li, Qingying & Zhu, Shuo & Choi, Tsan-Ming & Shen, Bin, 2025. "Maintaining E-commerce supply chain viability: Addressing supply risks with a strategic live-streaming channel," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Wu, Meng & Zhang, Jiawei & Chen, Xin, 2025. "Managing supply disruptions for risk-averse buyers: Diversified sourcing vs. disruption prevention," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Yang, Yi & Peng, Chen & Cao, En-Zhi, 2025. "Design of supply chain resilience strategies from the product life cycle perspective," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    6. Zhou, Caibo & Song, Wenyan & Wang, Huiwen & Wang, Lihong, 2025. "Resilience Assessment of Supply Chain Networks Considering Continuously Varying Sates of Firms in Ripple Effect: A Comprehensive and Dynamic Operational-Structural Analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Wang, Lu & Deng, Tianhu & Li, Qiaofeng, 2025. "Can feature removal benefit the automotive manufacturers amid supply shortages? An analytical investigation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Brusset, Xavier & Ivanov, Dmitry & Jebali, Aida & La Torre, Davide & Repetto, Marco, 2023. "A dynamic approach to supply chain reconfiguration and ripple effect analysis in an epidemic," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    9. Ke, Wan & Zhou, Xiaoyang & Lev, Benjamin & Shen, Wenjing, 2025. "Strategic Inventory with an Unreliable Manufacturer across Multiple Supply Chain Structures," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Rozhkov, Maxim & Ivanov, Dmitry & Blackhurst, Jennifer & Nair, Anand, 2022. "Adapting supply chain operations in anticipation of and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Liu, Ming & Ding, Yueyu & Chu, Feng & Dolgui, Alexandre & Zheng, Feifeng, 2024. "Robust actions for improving supply chain resilience and viability," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Ivanov, Dmitry, 2024. "Supply chain resilience: Conceptual and formal models drawing from immune system analogy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    13. Shaker Ardakani, Elham & Gilani Larimi, Niloofar & Oveysi Nejad, Maryam & Madani Hosseini, Mahsa & Zargoush, Manaf, 2023. "A resilient, robust transformation of healthcare systems to cope with COVID-19 through alternative resources," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    14. Aldrighetti, Riccardo & Battini, Daria & Ivanov, Dmitry, 2023. "Efficient resilience portfolio design in the supply chain with consideration of preparedness and recovery investments," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    15. Niu, Baozhuang & Deng, Xinhai & Xie, Fengfeng & Shen, Zifan, 2025. "Dual sourcing hurts supply chain viability? The value of brand-owners’ cooperation under single sourcing," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    16. Li, Shanshan & He, Yong & Jin, Shibo & Yan, Xue, 2025. "Strategic buyer stockpiling in supply chains under uncertain product availability and price fluctuation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Chervenkova, Tanya & Ivanov, Dmitry, 2023. "Adaptation strategies for building supply chain viability: A case study analysis of the global automotive industry re-purposing during the COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    18. Burgos, Diana & Ivanov, Dmitry, 2021. "Food retail supply chain resilience and the COVID-19 pandemic: A digital twin-based impact analysis and improvement directions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Mohammadi, Mehrdad & Dehghan, Milad & Pirayesh, Amir & Dolgui, Alexandre, 2022. "Bi‐objective optimization of a stochastic resilient vaccine distribution network in the context of the COVID‐19 pandemic," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    20. Shoufeng Ji & Pengyun Zhao & Tingting Ji, 2023. "A Hybrid Optimization Method for Sustainable and Flexible Design of Supply–Production–Distribution Network in the Physical Internet," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-34, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:133:y:2025:i:c:s0305048324001981. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.