IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v34y2010i2p231-245.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the distributional consequences of epidemics

Author

Listed:
  • Boucekkine, Raouf
  • Laffargue, Jean-Pierre

Abstract

We develop a tractable general theory for the study of the economic and demographic impact of epidemics, notably its distributional consequences. To this end, we build up a three-period overlapping generations model where altruistic parents choose optimal health expenditures for their children and themselves. The survival probability of adults and children depends on such investments. Agents can be skilled or unskilled. In this paper, epidemics are modeled as one-period exogenous shocks to the adults' survival rates. We first show that such epidemics have permanent effects on the size of population and on the level of output. However, the income distribution is shown to be unaltered in the long-run. Second, we show that this distribution may be significantly altered in the medium-term: in particular, the proportion of the unskilled will necessarily increase at that term if orphans are too penalized in the access to education.

Suggested Citation

  • Boucekkine, Raouf & Laffargue, Jean-Pierre, 2010. "On the distributional consequences of epidemics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 231-245, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:2:p:231-245
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1889(09)00161-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raouf Boucekkine & David De La Croix & Omar Licandro, 2004. "MODELLING VINTAGE STRUCTURES WITH DDEs: PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3-4), pages 151-179.
    2. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
    3. Bell, Clive & Gersbach, Hans, 2013. "Growth and enduring epidemic diseases," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2083-2103.
    4. Angus Deaton, 2003. "Health, Inequality, and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 113-158, March.
    5. repec:pri:rpdevs:case_paxson_orphansafrica is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1987. "Economic Behaviour in Adversity," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226342825, January-M.
    7. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & LAFFARGUE, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "A theory of dynamics and inequalities under epidemics," CORE Discussion Papers 2007037, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    8. repec:cor:louvrp:-2160 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Hélène Latzer, 2009. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 233-264, September.
    10. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2004. "Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy," GE, Growth, Math methods 0409004, EconWPA.
    11. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
    12. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
    13. Denis Cogneau & Michael Grimm, 2008. "The Impact of AIDS Mortality on the Distribution of Income in Côte d'Ivoire," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(5), pages 688-728, November.
    14. Shankha Chakraborty & Mausumi Das, 2005. "Mortality, Human Capital and Persistent Inequality," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 159-192, June.
    15. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
    16. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2004. "Orphans in Africa: parental death, poverty, and school enrollment," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(3), pages 483-508, August.
    17. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
    18. Anne Case & Darren Lubotsky & Christina Paxson, 2002. "Economic Status and Health in Childhood: The Origins of the Gradient," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1308-1334, December.
    19. Nathan D. Grawe & Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "Economic Interpretations of Intergenerational Correlations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 45-58, Summer.
    20. Raouf Boucekkine & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2008. "A theory of dynamics and inequalities under epidemics," Working Papers halshs-00586799, HAL.
    21. Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, 2003. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 755-777, May.
    22. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293 Elsevier.
    23. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June.
    24. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
    25. Alwyn Young, 2007. "In sorrow to bring forth children: fertility amidst the plague of HIV," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 283-327, December.
    26. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
    27. repec:pri:cheawb:case_paxson_orphansafrica is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Samuel Bowles & Herbert Gintis, 2002. "The Inheritance of Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    29. de Walque, Damien, 2007. "How does the impact of an HIV/AIDS information campaign vary with educational attainment? Evidence from rural Uganda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 686-714, November.
    30. Momota, Akira & Tabata, Ken & Futagami, Koichi, 2005. "Infectious disease and preventive behavior in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1673-1700, October.
    31. Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2006. "Endogenous Longevity and Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 0706, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    32. repec:pri:rpdevs:case_paxson_orphansafrica.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    33. repec:pri:cheawb:case_paxson_orphansafrica.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bell, Clive & Gersbach, Hans, 2013. "Growth and enduring epidemic diseases," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2083-2103.
    2. Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2012. "The public economics of increasing longevity," Working Papers halshs-00676492, HAL.
    3. Luca Gori & Enrico Lupi & Piero Manfredi & Mauro Sodini, 2017. "Can HIV alter the quantity-quality switch and delay the fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa?," CEIS Research Paper 416, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Dec 2017.
    4. Catarina Goulão & Agustín Pérez-Barahona, 2014. "Intergenerational Transmission of Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 16(3), pages 467-490, June.
    5. Azomahou, Theophile & Soete, Luc & Diene, Bity & Diene, Mbaye, 2012. "Optimal health investment with separable and non-separable preferences," MERIT Working Papers 047, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    6. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2012. "What doesn't kill you makes you stronger? The impact of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic on economic performance in Sweden," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 211, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    7. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2012. "The Public Economics of Increasing Longevity," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 200(1), pages 41-74, March.
    8. Théophile Azomahou & Bity Diene & Mbaye Diene & Luc Soete, 2015. "Optimal health investment and preference structure," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 60(3), pages 521-565, November.
    9. Gregory Ponthiere, 2013. "Fair Accumulation under Risky Lifetime," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(2), pages 210-230, May.
    10. Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2017. "Fighting Poverty And Child Malnutrition: On The Design Of Foreign Aid Policies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(08), pages 1935-1956, December.
    11. Goulão, Catarina & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín, 2011. "Intergenerational transmission of non-communicable chronic diseases," TSE Working Papers 11-219, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    12. Augier, Laurent & Yaly, Amy, 2013. "Economic growth and disease in the OLG model: The HIV/AIDS case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 471-481.
    13. repec:hal:psewpa:halshs-00746913 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Grégory Ponthière, 2012. "Fair Accumulation under Risky Lifetime," Working Papers halshs-00746913, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemics Orphans Income distribution Endogenous survival Medium-term dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:2:p:231-245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.