IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Growth and Enduring Epidemic Diseases

This paper studies the formation of human capital and its transmission across generations when premature adult mortality is a salient feature of the demographic landscape, either permanently or in the form of a long-period wave that follows the outbreak of an epidemic. We establish several threshold properties of the model, for such a shock can severely retard economic growth, even to the point of leading to an economic collapse. Premature adult mortality may exacerbate inequality under nuclear family arrangements. Pooling mortality risks with equal treatment of all children may fend off, or even induce, a collapse, depending on the initial conditions and the size and duration of the shock. Awareness campaigns may also trigger a collapse by introducing undesirable expectational feedbacks.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich in its series CER-ETH Economics working paper series with number 06/57.

in new window

Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:06-57
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Zürichbergstrasse 18, ZUE, CH-8092 Zürich

Phone: +41 44 632 03 87
Fax: +41 44 632 13 62
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. David Evans & Edward Miguel, 2007. "Orphans and schooling in africa: a longitudinal analysis," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(1), pages 35-57, February.
  2. Yamano, Takashi & Jayne, Thomas S., 2004. "Working-age Adult Mortality and Primary School Attendance in Rural Kenya," Food Security Collaborative Policy Briefs 54645, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  3. Raouf BOUCEKKINE & Jean-Pierre LAFFARGUE, 2009. "On the Distributional Consequences of Epidemics," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  4. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  6. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2005. "Death and Development," NBER Working Papers 11620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
  8. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & DESBORDES, Rodolphe & LATZER, Hélène, . "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," CORE Discussion Papers RP 2160, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  9. Chakraborty, Shankha, 2004. "Endogenous lifetime and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 119-137, May.
  10. Bell, Clive & Gersbach, Hans, 2001. "Child Labor and the Education of a Society," IZA Discussion Papers 338, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2006. "AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa," NBER Working Papers 12181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kathleen Beegle & Joachim Weerdt & Stefan Dercon, 2010. "Orphanhood and human capital destruction: Is there persistence into adulthood?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(1), pages 163-180, February.
  13. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1998. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition," Working Papers 98-1, Brown University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Aug 1998.
  14. repec:rus:hseeco:71105 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
  16. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  17. Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, 2003. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 755-777, 05.
  18. Bruhns, Ramona, 2006. "The Long-run Effects of HIV/AIDS in Kenya," MPRA Paper 952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2006. "The Long-Run Economic Costs of aids: A Model with an Application to South Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(1), pages 55-89.
  21. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
  22. Johansson, Lars M., 2007. "Fiscal implications of AIDS in South Africa," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1614-1640, October.
  23. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2002. "Orphans in Africa," NBER Working Papers 9213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Amar Hamoudi & Nancy Birdsall, 2004. "AIDS and the Accumulation and Utilisation of Human Capital in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 13(1), pages i96-i136, July.
  25. Jeremy Magruder, 2011. "Marital Shopping and Epidemic AIDS," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1401-1428, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:06-57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.