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Growth and Enduring Epidemic Diseases

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Abstract

This paper studies the formation of human capital and its transmission across generations when premature adult mortality is a salient feature of the demographic landscape, either permanently or in the form of a long-period wave that follows the outbreak of an epidemic. We establish several threshold properties of the model, for such a shock can severely retard economic growth, even to the point of leading to an economic collapse. Premature adult mortality may exacerbate inequality under nuclear family arrangements. Pooling mortality risks with equal treatment of all children may fend off, or even induce, a collapse, depending on the initial conditions and the size and duration of the shock. Awareness campaigns may also trigger a collapse by introducing undesirable expectational feedbacks.

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  • Clive Bell & Hans Gersbach, 2006. "Growth and Enduring Epidemic Diseases," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 06/57, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:eth:wpswif:06-57
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    Cited by:

    1. Balistreri, Edward J. & Hillberry, Russell H. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2011. "Structural estimation and solution of international trade models with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 95-108, March.
    2. Boucekkine, Raouf & Laffargue, Jean-Pierre, 2010. "On the distributional consequences of epidemics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 231-245, February.
    3. Gori, Luca & Lupi, Enrico & Manfredi, Piero & Sodini, Mauro, 2017. "Can HIV alter the quantity-quality switch and delay the fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 75, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. repec:oup:renvpo:v:12:y:2018:i:1:p:4-25. is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2012. "The social economic impact of AIDS: Accounting for intergenerational transmission, productivity and fertility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 369-381.
    6. Luca Gori & Enrico Lupi & Piero Manfredi & Mauro Sodini, 2017. "Can HIV alter the quantity-quality switch and delay the fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa?," CEIS Research Paper 416, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Dec 2017.
    7. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    8. Laps, Jochen, 2015. "Fully Funded Social Security Pensions, Lifetime Risk and Income," Working Papers 0603, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    9. Laps, Jochen, 2016. "Fully Funded Social Security Pensions, Lifetime Risk and Income," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145587, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemic Diseases; HIV/AIDS; Growth; Collapse; Pooling;

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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