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Economic growth, education, and AIDS in Kenya : a long-run analysis

Author

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  • Bell, Clive
  • Bruhns, Ramona
  • Gersbach, Hans

Abstract

The AIDS epidemic threatens Kenya with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to the formation of human capital and economic growth. To investigate this possibility, the authors develop a model with three overlapping generations, calibrate it to the demographic and economic series from 1950 until 1990, and then perform simulations for the period ending in 2050 under alternative assumptions about demographic developments, including the counterfactual in which there is no epidemic. Although AIDS does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, it does cause large economic costs-and many deaths. Programs that subsidize post-primary education and combat the epidemic are both socially profitable-the latter strikingly so, due to its indirect effects on the expected returns to education-and a combination of the two interventions profits from a modest long-run synergy effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Bell, Clive & Bruhns, Ramona & Gersbach, Hans, 2006. "Economic growth, education, and AIDS in Kenya : a long-run analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4025, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Yamano, Takashi & Jayne, T S, 2005. "Working-Age Adult Mortality and Primary School Attendance in Rural Kenya," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages 619-653, April.
    3. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
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    5. David Evans & Edward Miguel, 2007. "Orphans and schooling in africa: a longitudinal analysis," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(1), pages 35-57, February.
    6. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
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    8. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emla Fitzsimons & Alice Mesnard, 2008. "Are boys and girls affected differently when the household head leaves for good? Evidence from school and work choices in Colombia," IFS Working Papers W08/11, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Martine AUDIBERT, 2008. "Endemic diseases and agricultural productivity: Challenges and policy response," Working Papers 200823, CERDI.
    3. Martine AUDIBERT & Pascale COMBES MOTEL & Alassane DRABO, 2010. "Global Burden of Disease and Economic Growth," Working Papers 201036, CERDI.
    4. Fitzsimons, Emla & Mesnard, Alice, 2008. "Are Boys and Girls Affected Differently When the Household Head Leaves for Good? Evidence from School and Work Choices in Colombia," CEPR Discussion Papers 7040, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Antonio C. David & Carmen A. Li, 2010. "Exploring the links between HIV|AIDS, social capital and development," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 941-961.
    6. David,Antonio C., 2007. "HIV/AIDS and social capital in a cross-section of countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4263, The World Bank.
    7. José Cuesta, 2008. "Does a Mature AIDS Epidemic Threaten Growth?," Research Department Publications 4567, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Jose Cuesta, 2010. "How much of a threat to economic growth is a mature AIDS epidemic?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3077-3089.
    9. Fitzsimons, Emla & Mesnard, Alice, 2013. "Can conditional cash transfers compensate for a father's absence ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6476, The World Bank.
    10. Thornton, Rebecca L., 2012. "HIV testing, subjective beliefs and economic behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 300-313.
    11. José A. Cuesta, 2008. "Does a mature AIDS epidemic threaten growth?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1613, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Fitzsimons, Emla & Mesnard, Alice, 2012. "How children’s schooling and work is affected when their father leaves permanently: Evidence from Colombia," CEPR Discussion Papers 8886, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. José Cuesta, 2008. "¿Una epidemia de SIDA en su etapa madura es una amenaza para el crecimiento?," Research Department Publications 4568, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    14. Emla Fitzsimons & Alice Mesnard, 2012. "How children's schooling and work are affected when their father leaves permanently: evidence from Colombia," IFS Working Papers W12/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population Policies; Primary Education; Education For All; Adolescent Health; Economic Theory&Research;

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