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Adult Mortality and Consumption Growth in the Age of HIV/AIDS

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  • Kathleen Beegle
  • Joachim De Weerdt
  • Stefan Dercon

Abstract

This paper uses a 13-year panel of individuals in Tanzania to assess how adult mortality shocks affect both short and long-run consumption growth of surviving household members. Using unique data which tracks individuals from 1991 to 2004, we examine consumption growth, controlling for a set of initial community, household and individual characteristics; the effect is identified using the sample of households in 2004 which grew out of baseline households. We find robust evidence that an affected household will see consumption drop 7 percent within the first five years after the adult death. With high growth in the sample over this time period, this creates a 19 percentage point growth gap with the average household. There is some evidence of persistent effects of these shocks for up to 13 years, but these effects are imprecisely estimated and not significantly different from zero. The impact of female adult death is found to be particularly severe.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathleen Beegle & Joachim De Weerdt & Stefan Dercon, 2007. "Adult Mortality and Consumption Growth in the Age of HIV/AIDS," CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2007-02
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabrice Murtin & Federica Marzo, 2013. "Hiv/Aids And Poverty In South Africa: A Bayesian Estimation Of Selection Models With Correlated Fixed-Effects," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(1), pages 118-139, March.
    2. Hagen, Jens & Omar Mahmoud, Toman & Trofimenko, Natalia, 2010. "Orphanhood and Critical Periods in Children's Human Capital Formation: Long-Run Evidence from North-Western Tanzania," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 33, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    3. Ikegami, Munenobu, 2009. "Agricultural productivity and mortality: evidence from Kagera, Tanzania," MPRA Paper 24587, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Aug 2010.
    4. Christopher Ksoll, 2007. "Family Networks and Orphan Caretaking in Tanzania," Economics Series Working Papers 361, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Alem, Yonas, 2013. "Poverty Persistence and Intra-Household Heterogeneity in Occupations: Evidence from Urban Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 580, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    6. Omar Mahmoud, Toman & Thiele, Rainer, 2009. "Does AIDS-related mortality reduce per-capita household income? Evidence from rural Zambia," Kiel Working Papers 1530, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Kudo, Yuya, 2015. "Female Migration for Marriage: Implications from the Land Reform in Rural Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 41-61.
    8. Lu, Yi & Xie, Huihua & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2016. "Telecommunication externality on migration: Evidence from Chinese villages," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 77-90.
    9. Himaz, Rozana, 2009. "The impact of parental death on schooling and subjective wellbeing: Evidence from Ethiopia using longitudinal data," MPRA Paper 21735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jean-Noël Senne, 2014. "Death and schooling decisions over the short and long run in rural Madagascar," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 497-528, April.
    11. Kasirye, Ibrahim & Ssewanyana, Sarah N., 2010. "Impacts and determinants of panel survey attrition: The case of Northern Uganda survey 2004-2008," Research Series 127536, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    12. Kathleen Beegle & Sofya Krutikova, 2008. "Adult mortality and children’s transition into marriage," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(42), pages 1551-1574, September.
    13. Islam, Asadul & Maitra, Pushkar, 2012. "Health shocks and consumption smoothing in rural households: Does microcredit have a role to play?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 232-243.
    14. Alem, Yonas, 2014. "Poverty Persistence and Intra-Household Heterogeneity in Occupations: Some Evidence from Ethiopia," Discussion Papers dp-14-05-efd, Resources For the Future.
    15. Francesco Strobbe & Claudia Olivetti & Mireille Jacobson, 2010. "Breaking the Net: Family Structure and Street Children in Zambia," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 11110, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    16. Jack, William & Lewis, Maureen, 2009. "Health investments and economic growth : macroeconomic evidence and microeconomic foundations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4877, The World Bank.
    17. Julie Litchfield & Thomas McGregor, 2008. "Poverty in Kagera, Tanzania: Characteristics, Causes and Constraints," PRUS Working Papers 42, Poverty Research Unit at Sussex, University of Sussex.
    18. Kudo, Yuya, 2012. "Marriage as women's old age insurance : evidence from migration and land inheritance practices in rural Tanzania," IDE Discussion Papers 368, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    19. Hagen, Jens & Omar Mahmoud, Toman & Trofimenko, Natalia, 2010. "Orphanhood and critical periods in children's human capital formation: Long-run evidence from North-Western Tanzania," Kiel Working Papers 1649, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    20. Omar Mahmoud, Toman & Thiele, Rainer, 2013. "Does Prime-Age Mortality Reduce Per-Capita Household Income? Evidence from Rural Zambia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 51-62.
    21. Manoj K. Pandey, 2013. "Elderly's Health Shocks and Household's Ex-ante Poverty in India," ASARC Working Papers 2013-01, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV/AIDS; Adult Mortality; Poverty Impact;

    JEL classification:

    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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