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HIV/AIDS and Poverty in South Africa : A Bayesian Estimation

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  • Federica MARZO

    (Crest)

  • Fabrice MURTIN

    (Crest)

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the causal impact of HIV/AIDS on monetary poverty. Using a paneldatabase from South Africa, we model the consequences of illness on both labor income andtransfers. We treat endogeneity and selection problems associated to HIV/AIDS through using aselection model that includes correlated fixed-effects both in the level and the participationequations, which are estimated simultaneously via original Bayesian methods. While no significantimpact of HIV/AIDS on household labor income is found due to households recomposition, asignificant and asymmetric impact on income transfers emerges. For urban populations, we find thatHIV/AIDS has a positive impact on the probability of receiving social and private transfers, servingto marginally reduce poverty, while for rural populations, HIV/AIDS causes a substantial fall inreceived transfers and dramatically increases chronic poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Federica MARZO & Fabrice MURTIN, 2009. "HIV/AIDS and Poverty in South Africa : A Bayesian Estimation," Working Papers 2009-12, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2009-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10840 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ethan Ligon & Jonathan P. Thomas & Tim Worrall, 2000. "Mutual Insurance, Individual Savings and Limited Commitment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(2), pages 216-246, April.
    3. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    4. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
    5. Coate, Stephen & Ravallion, Martin, 1993. "Reciprocity without commitment : Characterization and performance of informal insurance arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-24, February.
    6. Marcel Fafchamps & Flore Gubert, 2007. "Risk Sharing and Network Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 75-79, May.
    7. Maitra, Pushkar & Ray, Ranjan, 2003. "The effect of transfers on household expenditure patterns and poverty in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 23-49, June.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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