Aids and Economic Growth: A Human Capital Approach
It is estimated that by 2001 20 million people had died from AIDS, which is now the world´s fourth biggest cause of death. While the highest prevalence and death rates and number of infected persons are reported for sub-Saharan Africa, where life expectancies at birth are declining rapidly and infant mortality rates are increasing, there is evidence that the epidemic is accelerating in Asia and Eastern Europe. While the human and social costs of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are the major causes for concern, the econometric results reported in this paper indicate that the macroeconomic affects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic have been substantial; especially in Africa where the average marginal negative impact on income per capita of a one percent increase in HIV prevalence rate is 0.59 percent. Even in countries where the HIV prevalence rates are lower the marginal impacts are non trivial.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2004|
|Date of revision:||Aug 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 114 222 3399
Fax: + 44 (0)114 222 3458
Web page: http://www.shef.ac.uk/economicsEmail:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., .
"The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
-412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 239-53, January.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 1996. "Misspecification and cross-country growth regressions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 413-416.
- C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
- Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
- Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001.
"International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," CID Working Papers 42, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-55, March-Apr.
- J. A. Hausman, 1976.
"Specification Tests in Econometrics,"
185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Roberto Cellini, 1997. "Growth empirics: evidence from a panel of annual data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 347-351.
- Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1993.
"International comparisons of educational attainment,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 363-394, December.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "International Comparisons of Educational Attainment," NBER Working Papers 4349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Amar Hamoudi & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1999. "The Changing Global Distribution of Malaria: A Review," CID Working Papers 2, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1997.
"Growth and Convergence in Multi-country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 357-92, July-Aug..
- Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 1996. "Growth and Convergence in a Multi-Country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model," Working Papers 9637, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 1996.
- Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
- Sen, Amartya, 1998.
"Mortality as an Indicator of Economic Success and Failure,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 1-25, January.
- Amartya Sen, 1995. "Mortality as an Indicator of Economic Success and Failure," Innocenti Lectures innlec95/2, UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre.
- Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(2), pages 173-89, May.
- Knowles, Stephen & Owen, P. Dorian, 1995. "Health capital and cross-country variation in income per capita in the Mankiw-Romer-Weil model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 99-106, April.
- Selma J. Mushkin, 1962. "Health as an Investment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 129.
- Sudhir Anand & Martin Ravallion, 1993. "Human Development in Poor Countries: On the Role of Private Incomes and Public Services," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 133-150, Winter.
- Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
- Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997.
"Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
- David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geoff P Garnett & Nicholas C Grassly & Simon Gregson, 2001. "AIDS: the makings of a development disaster?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 391-409.
- Wheeler, David, 1980. "Basic needs fulfillment and economic growth : A simultaneous model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 435-451, December.
- Hicks, Norman L., 1979. "Growth vs basic needs: Is there a trade-off?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 7(11-12), pages 985-994.
- Bhargava, Alok & Jamison, Dean T. & Lau, Lawrence J. & Murray, Christopher J. L., 2001. "Modeling the effects of health on economic growth," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 423-440, May.
- Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April.
- Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
- McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2002. "Growth and multiple forms of human capital in an augmented Solow model: a panel data investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 271-276, January.
- Silvia Sgherri & Maitland MacFarlan, 2001. "The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana," IMF Working Papers 01/80, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2004008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jacob Holmes)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.