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Growth and Convergence in a Multi-County empirical Stochastic Solow Model

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  • Kevin Lee
  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Ron Smith

Abstract

The paper considers international per capita output and its growth using a panel of data for 102 countries between 1960-1989. It sets out an explicitly stochastic Solow growth model and shows that this has quite different properties from the standard approach where the output equation is obtained by adding an error term to the linearized solution of a deterministic Solow model. It examines the econometric properties of estimates of beta convergence as traditionally defined in the literature and shows that all these estimates are subject to substantial biases. Empirical estimates clearly reflect the nature and the magnitude of these biases as predicted by econometric theory. Steady state growth rates differ significantly across countries and once this heterogeneity is allowed for, the estimates of beta are substantially higher than the consensus in the literature. But they are very imprecisely estimated and difficult to interpret. The paper also discusses the economic implications of these results for sigma convergence.
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Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, "undated". "Growth and Convergence in a Multi-County empirical Stochastic Solow Model," Discussion Papers in Economics 96/14, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:96/14
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    Cited by:

    1. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    2. Heshmati, Almas, 2004. "A Review of Decomposition of Income Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 1221, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Michelle Baddeley, 2006. "Convergence or Divergence? The Impacts of Globalisation on Growth and Inequality in Less Developed Countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 391-410.
    4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra, 2017. "What Drives Urban Consumption in Mainland China? The Role of Property Price Dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 383-409, August.
    5. Giovanni Maria Giorgi & Maria Grazia Pittau & Roberto Zelli, 2005. "Regional Empirics for Economic Disparities in Italy: 1951-2001," Econometrics 0507011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. J. Paul Dunne & Ron Smith & Dirk Willenbockel, 2005. "Models Of Military Expenditure And Growth: A Critical Review," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 449-461.
    7. Rosa Capolupo, "undated". "The New Growth Theoris and their Empirics," Working Papers 2005_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Theo Hitiris & John Nixon, 2001. "Convergence of health care expenditure in the EU countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 223-228.
    9. Estrin, Saul & Lazarova, Stepana & Urga, Giovanni, 2001. "Convergence in Transition Countries--Focus on Investment: Central and Eastern Europe, 1970-1996," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 215-230.
    10. Iancu, Aurel, 2009. "Real Economic Convergence," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 090104, National Institute of Economic Research.
    11. Begu Liviu-Stelian & Teodorescu Irina-Teodora & Dimidov Ioana-Catalina & Istrate Ionut, 2010. "Analysis Of Convergence Within The European Union - Sigma And Beta Convergence," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 482-485, December.
    12. Julia Korosteleva & Colin Lawson, 2010. "The Belarusian case of transition: whither financial repression?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 33-53.
    13. repec:kap:iaecre:v:6:y:2000:i:1:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. A.R. Kemal & Abdul Qayyum & Muhammad Nadim Hanif, 2007. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Heterogeneous Panel of High Income Countries," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, Jan-Jun.
    15. S. McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 1999. "On Testing Cross - Section Growth Models," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 67(4), pages 240-254, December.
    16. Rosa Capolupo, 2005. "THE NEW GROWTH THEORIES AND THEIR EMPIRICS, Discussion Paper in Economics, University of Glasgow, N. 2005-04 (http://www.gla.ac.uk/Acad/Economics," GE, Growth, Math methods 0506003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Zheng Wang, 2004. "Regional Divergence of per capita GDP in China: 1991-99," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 39-53.

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