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AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis

Author

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  • Simon Dixon

    (Sheffield Health Economics Group, University of Sheffield, UK)

  • Scott McDonald

    (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, UK)

  • Jennifer Roberts

    (Sheffield Health Economics Group, University of Sheffield, UK)

Abstract

HIV|AIDS is the dominant health issue in Africa, where in many countries the human and social costs are devastating. Any deterioration in economic performance is likely to compound these costs and render countries less able to cope with the epidemic. However, conventional economic theories of growth argue that the impact of such an epidemic on the growth rate and level of income may be positive or negative. The analyses reported in this paper assess the impact of the HIV epidemic upon economic growth performance in 41 African economies between 1960 and 1998. The results indicate that for African countries where the prevalence of HIV is relatively low the impact of the epidemic conforms to 'normal' economic expectations. However, when the prevalence of the epidemic is relatively high the macroeconomic impact of the epidemic is unclear. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:13:y:2001:i:4:p:411-426
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.795
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2016. "Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1225-1255, August.
    2. Markus Haacker, 2002. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS," IMF Working Papers 02/195, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Arndt, Channing, 2006. "HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic growth prospects for Mozambique," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 477-489, July.
    4. Pedro de Araujo, 2008. "The Socio-Economic Distribution of AIDS Incidence and Output," Caepr Working Papers 2008-014_updated, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    5. Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira & Samuel Pessôa & Marcelo Rodrigues Dos Santos, 2011. "The Impact Of Aids On Income And Human Capital," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(4), pages 1104-1116, October.
    6. de Araujo, Pedro & Murray, James, 2010. "A Life Insurance Deterrent to Risky Behavior in Africa," MPRA Paper 22675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Pedro de Araujo, 2008. "The Socio-Economic Distribution of AIDS Incidence and Output," Caepr Working Papers 2008-014_updated, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    8. Paul Mosley, 2002. "The African green revolution as a pro-poor policy instrument," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(6), pages 695-724.
    9. Martine AUDIBERT & Pascale COMBES MOTEL & Alassane DRABO, 2010. "Global Burden of Disease and Economic Growth," Working Papers 201036, CERDI.
    10. Enrico Lovász & Bernhard Schipp, 2009. "The Impact Of Hiv/Aids On Economic Growth In Sub-Saharan Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(2), pages 245-256, June.
    11. Mahlet Gezahegn & Mukti Upadhyay, 2014. "The Effect of HIV/AIDS on Economic Growth of Southern African Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(9), pages 1146-1157, September.
    12. Marc Suhrcke & Dieter Urban, 2010. "Are cardiovascular diseases bad for economic growth?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(12), pages 1478-1496, December.
    13. Azmat Gani, 2009. "Some Aspects of Communicable and Non-communicable Diseases in Pacific Island Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 91(2), pages 171-187, April.
    14. Maria Abreu & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of Beta-Convergence: The Legendary Two-Percent," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-001/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. de Araujo, Pedro & Murray, James, 2015. "A life insurance deterrent to risky behavior in Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 548-576.
    16. José Cuesta, 2008. "Does a Mature AIDS Epidemic Threaten Growth?," Research Department Publications 4567, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    17. Denis Cogneau & Michael Grimm, 2002. "AIDS and Income Distribution in Africa; A Micro-simulation Study for Côte d'Ivoire," Working Papers DT/2002/15, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    18. Thornton, Rebecca L., 2012. "HIV testing, subjective beliefs and economic behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 300-313.
    19. Edwards, Jeffrey A. & Al-Hmoud, Rashid & Fawaz, Fadi, 2007. "The effects of HIV/AIDS infections and mortality on saving and investment," MPRA Paper 36308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. José A. Cuesta, 2008. "Does a mature AIDS epidemic threaten growth?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1613, Inter-American Development Bank.
    21. Louise Roos, 2013. "Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS: A literature review," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-233, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    22. Arndt, Channing, 2002. "HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic prospects for Mozambique," TMD discussion papers 88, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    23. José Cuesta, 2008. "¿Una epidemia de SIDA en su etapa madura es una amenaza para el crecimiento?," Research Department Publications 4568, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    24. repec:pra:mprapa:10841 is not listed on IDEAS

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