The Socio-Economic Distribution of AIDS Incidence and Output
This paper investigates the effect of HIV/AIDS on steady state output in an overlapping generations economy calibrated to resemble sub-Sahara Africa. I use skill heterogeneity as a proxy for socioeconomic status and test scenarios where the AIDS epidemic affects skills differently. The results indicate that the effects of the epidemic are sensitive to the distribution of the disease across skills. In general, the effect is much greater as the epidemic mainly affects skilled workers. Output is found to be below a no-AIDS output in a range between 3% (10%), when only unskilled workers are affected, and 10% (28%), when only skilled workers affected, whenever the overall infection rate is 7% (20%). When investigating the hypothesis that AIDS affects skilled workers more severely than unskilled at the beginning of the epidemic, with the effect switching as the epidemic becomes more mature, the findings are that the economy can be 8% smaller along the transition path. In all scenarios where the epidemic is temporary, it would take 4 to 5 generations or about 90 years for sub-Saharan Africa to recover.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 812-855-1021|
Web page: http://www.iub.edu/~caepr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fallon, P R & Layard, P R G, 1975. "Capital-Skill Complementarity, Income Distribution, and Output Accounting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 279-301, April.
- Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April.
- Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
- Deolalikar, Anil B & Evenson, Robert E, 1989.
"Technology Production and Technology Purchase in Indian Industry: An Econometric Analysis,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 689-692, November.
- Deolalikar, A.B. & Evenson, R.E., 1988. "Technology Production And Technology Purchase In Indian Industry: An Econometric Analysis," Papers 556, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
- Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
- Douglas Gollin, 2001. "Getting Income Shares Right," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-11, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- R Bonnel, 2000. "HIV/AIDS and Economic Growth: A Global Perspective," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 360-379, December.
- Cuddington, John T & Hancock, John D, 1995. "The Macroeconomic Impact of AIDS in Malawi: A Dualistic, Labour Surplus Economy," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, May.
- Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426.
- Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
- David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pedro S. Amaral & Erwan Quintin, 2003. "The Implications of Capital-Skill Complementarity in Economies with Large Informal Sectors," Macroeconomics 0309017, EconWPA.
- Pedro Amaral & Erwan Quintin, 2004. "The implications of capital-skill complementarity in economies with large informal sectors," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0404, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & JosÈ-Victor RÌos-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 2000. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1029-1054, September.
- Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 1997. "Capital-skill complementarity and inequality: a macroeconomic analysis," Staff Report 239, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D. & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1994. "A dynamic aggregative model of the AIDS epidemic with possible policy interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 473-496, October.
- Mwabu, Germano & Schultz, T Paul, 2000. "Wage Premiums for Education and Location of South African Workers, by Gender and Race," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 307-334, January.
- repec:lsu:lsuwpp:2003-12 is not listed on IDEAS
- Chris Papageorgiou & Marianne Saam, 2008. "Two-level CES Production Technology in the Solow and Diamond Growth Models," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(1), pages 119-143, 03.
- Chris Papageorgiou & Marianne Saam, "undated". "Two-Level CES Production Technology in the Solow and Diamond Growth Models," Departmental Working Papers 2005-07, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
- Nicoli Nattrass*, 2003. "Aids, Economic Growth And Income Distribution In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 71(3), pages 428-454, 09.
- Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(2), pages 173-189, May.
- Arndt, Channing, 2006. "HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic growth prospects for Mozambique," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 477-489, July.
- de Walque, Damien, 2006. "Who gets AIDS and how ? The determinants of HIV infection and sexual behaviors in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3844, The World Bank.
- C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2008-014updated. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.