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HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys

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  • Chinhui Juhn
  • Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
  • Belgi Turan

    ()

Abstract

The historical pattern of the demographic transition suggests that fertility declines follow mortality declines, followed by a rise in human capital accumulation and economic growth. The HIV/AIDS epidemic threatens to reverse this path. We utilize recent rounds of the demographic and health surveys that link an individual woman’s fertility outcomes to her HIV status based on testing. The data allow us to distinguish the effect of own positive HIV status on fertility (which may be due to lower fecundity and other physiological reasons) from the behavioral response to higher mortality risk, as measured by the local community HIV prevalence. We show that although HIV-infected women have significantly lower fertility, local community HIV prevalence has no significant effect on noninfected women’s fertility. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:26:y:2013:i:3:p:835-853 DOI: 10.1007/s00148-012-0456-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV/AIDS; Fertility; Economic development; O12; I12; J13;

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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