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Accounting for the effects of AIDS on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Paul Cahu

    (The World Bank - The World Bank)

  • Falilou Fall

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this paper, we first, perform a quantitative assessment of the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on growth. Second, we precisely account for the effects of the epidemic on income per capita through human and physical capital accumulations, population and labor force. That is, we disentangle the effect on the different sources of short and long run growth. Using a dynamic panel of 46 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1981-2007, we show that HIV/AIDS has negative, significant and long-lasting effects on demography and growth. According to the estimates presented, GDP per working age population will be 12% lower in the long-run for the average African country than it should be if the epidemic had not spread out. However, the impact is huge for the countries experiencing a high prevalence rate. To tackle the endogeneity issue of HIV/AIDS, we provide a new series of HIV prevalence rate build from the estimation of the propagation dynamic of the epidemic.

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  • Paul Cahu & Falilou Fall, 2011. "Accounting for the effects of AIDS on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Post-Print halshs-00609798, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00609798
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00609798
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    1. Tompsett, Anna, 2020. "The Lazarus drug: the impact of antiretroviral therapy on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health; AIDS epidemic; human capital; growth; Sub-Saharan Africa; SIDA; santé; croissance; Afrique; capital humain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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