IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

A theory of dynamics and inequalities under epidemics

Listed author(s):
  • Raouf, BOUCEKKINE

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Department of Economics)

We develop a tractable general theory for the study of the economic and demographic impact of epidemics. In particular, we analytically characterise the short and medium term consequences of epidemics for population size, age pyramid, economic performance and income distribution. To this end, we develop a three-period overlapping generations where altruistic parents choose optimal health expenditures for their children and themselves. The survival probability of (junior) adults and children depend on such investments. Agents can be skilled or unskilled. The model emphasizes the role of orphans. Orphans are not only penalized in front of death, they are also penalized in the access to education. Epidemics are modeled as one period exogenous shocks to the survival rates. We identify three kinds of epidemics depending on how th epidemic shock alters the marginal efficiency of health expenditures. We first study the demographic dynamics, and prove that while a one-period epidemic shock has no permanent effect on income distribution, it can perfectly alter it in the short and medium run. We then study the impact of the three kinds of epidemics when they hit children and/or junior adults. We prove that while the three epidemics have significatly different demographic implications in the medium run, they all imply a worsening in the short and medium run of economic performance and income distribution. In particular, the distributional implications of the model mainly rely on orphans : if orphans are more penalized in the access to a high level of education than in front of death, they will necessarily lead to the medium-term increase in the proportion of the unskilled, triggering the impoverishment of the economy at that time horizon.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/IRES/2007-22.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques in its series Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) with number 2007022.

as
in new window

Length: 49
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2007022
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Place Montesquieu 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

Fax: +32 10473945
Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/econ
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. repec:pri:rpdevs:cutler_deaton_lleras-muney_determinants_mortality_nberdec05.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
  2. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
  3. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
  4. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293 Elsevier.
  5. repec:pri:cheawb:case_paxson_orphansafrica is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Angus Deaton, 2003. "Health, Inequality, and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 113-158, March.
  7. repec:pri:rpdevs:case_paxson_orphansafrica is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Samuel Bowles & Herbert Gintis, 2002. "The Inheritance of Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
  9. de Walque, Damien, 2007. "How does the impact of an HIV/AIDS information campaign vary with educational attainment? Evidence from rural Uganda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 686-714, November.
  10. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1987. "Economic Behaviour in Adversity," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226342825, August.
  11. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 97-120, Summer.
  12. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
  13. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2008. "Death and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 81-124, June.
  14. repec:pri:cheawb:cutler_deaton_lleras-muney_determinants_mortality_nberdec05 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2004. "Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy," GE, Growth, Math methods 0409004, EconWPA.
  16. Raouf, BOUCEKKINE & Bity, DIENE & Theophile, AZOMAHOU, 2006. "The Growth economics of epidemics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006021, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  17. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
  18. Brainerd, Elizabeth & Siegler, Mark V, 2003. "The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 3791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
  20. Shankha Chakraborty & Mausumi Das, 2005. "Mortality, Human Capital and Persistent Inequality," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 159-192, 06.
  21. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Pessoa, Samuel de Abreu, 2003. "The long run economic impact of AIDS," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 475, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  22. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June.
  23. Denis Cogneau & Michael Grimm, 2008. "The Impact of AIDS Mortality on the Distribution of Income in Côte d'Ivoire," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(5), pages 688-728, November.
  24. Hazan, Moshe & Zoabi, Hosny, 2005. "Does Longevity Cause Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. repec:pri:rpdevs:case_paxson_orphansafrica.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
  26. repec:pri:cheawb:cutler_deaton_lleras-muney_determinants_mortality_nberdec05.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
  28. Anne Case & Darren Lubotsky & Christina Paxson, 2002. "Economic Status and Health in Childhood: The Origins of the Gradient," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1308-1334, December.
  29. Moshe Hazan & Hosny Zoabi, 2006. "Does longevity cause growth? A theoretical critique," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 363-376, December.
  30. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2004. "Orphans in Africa: parental death, poverty, and school enrollment," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(3), pages 483-508, August.
  31. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
  32. Nathan D. Grawe & Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "Economic Interpretations of Intergenerational Correlations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 45-58, Summer.
  33. Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, 2003. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 755-777, 05.
  34. Francesco Ricci & Marios Zachariadis, 2006. "Determinants of Public Health Outcomes: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 107, Society for Computational Economics.
  35. repec:pri:cheawb:case_paxson_orphansafrica.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
  36. repec:pri:rpdevs:cutler_deaton_lleras-muney_determinants_mortality_nberdec05 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
  38. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2007022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne DAVISTER-LOGIST)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.