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Death and development

  • Peter Lorentzen
  • John McMillan
  • Romain Wacziarg

    ()

Analyzing a variety of cross-national and sub-national data sources, we show that high adult mortality reduces economic growth by shortening time horizons. Higher adult mortality is associated with increased levels of risky behavior, higher fertility and lower investment in physical and human capital. Furthermore, the feedback effect from economic prosperity to better healthcare implies that mortality could be the source of a poverty-trap. In our regressions, adult mortality explains almost all of Africa's growth tragedy over the past forty years. Our analysis also supports grim forecasts of the long-run economic costs of the ongoing AIDS epidemic.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10887-008-9029-3
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Economic Growth.

Volume (Year): 13 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 81-124

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jecgro:v:13:y:2008:i:2:p:81-124
DOI: 10.1007/s10887-008-9029-3
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/growth/journal/10887/PS2

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