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Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?

Listed author(s):
  • Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

    (The University of Houston)

This paper analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively the e ects of declining mortality rates on fertility, education and economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that if individuals are prudent in the face of uncertainty about child survival, a decline in an exogenous mortality rate reduces precautionary demand for children and increases parental investment in each child. Once mortality is endogenized, population growth becomes a hump-shaped function of income per capita. At low levels of income population growth rises as income per capita rises leading to a Malthusian steady-state equilibrium, whereas at high levels of income population growth declines leading to a sustained growth steadystate equilibrium.

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File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/mac/papers/0212/0212008.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0212008.

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Date of creation: 17 Dec 2002
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0212008
Note: Type of Document - Tex; prepared on IBM PC; to print on HP;
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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  12. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2003. "A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 103-118, February.
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  17. Tamura, Robert, 2006. "Human capital and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 26-72, February.
  18. Heckman, James J & Walker, James R, 1990. "The Relationship between Wages and Income and the Timing and Spacing of Births: Evidence from Swedish Longitudinal Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1411-1441, November.
  19. Claus Chr. Pörtner, 2001. "Children as insurance," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 119-136.
  20. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
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