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Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Oded Galor
  • David N. Weil

Abstract

This paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita, into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modern Growth regime, with reduced population growth and sustained income growth.

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Paper provided by Brown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 99-35.

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Date of creation: 1999
Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:99-35
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Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
  • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
  • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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  1. Ronald Lee, 1980. "A Historical Perspective on Economic Aspects of the Population Explosion: The Case of Preindustrial England," NBER Chapters,in: Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries, pages 517-566 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters,in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Mark Doms & Timothy Dunne & Kenneth R. Troske, 1997. "Workers, Wages, and Technology," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 253-290.
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  12. Lant Pritchett, 1997. "Divergence, Big Time," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer.
  13. Claudia Goldin, 1994. "The U-Shaped Female Labor Force Function in Economic Development and Economic History," NBER Working Papers 4707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. John Komlos & Marc Artzrouni, "undated". "Mathematical Investigations of the Escape from the Malthusian Trap," Articles by John Komlos 24, Department of Economics, University of Munich.
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  16. Richard R. Nelson & Edmond S. Phelps, 1965. "Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion and Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 189, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  17. Razin, Assaf & Ben-Zion, Uri, 1975. "An Intergenerational Model of Population Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 923-933, December.
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  19. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
  20. Birdsall, Nancy, 1988. "Economic approaches to population growth," Handbook of Development Economics,in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 477-542 Elsevier.
  21. Goodfriend, Marvin & McDermott, John, 1995. "Early Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 116-133, March.
  22. Dahan, Momi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1998. "Demographic Transition, Income Distribution, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 29-52, March.
  23. Eckstein, Zvi & Stern, Steven & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1988. "Fertility Choice, Land, and the Malthusian Hypothesis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(2), pages 353-361, May.
  24. Raut, L K & Srinivasan, T N, 1994. "Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(5), pages 777-790, August.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Two New Papers On Malthus
    by Mark McG in Geary Behaviour Centre on 2010-12-05 18:39:00
  2. Unified Growth Theory
    by ? in Graduate Economist on 2012-04-19 12:00:00
  3. Did We Evolve the Capacity for Sustained Growth?
    by dvollrath in The Growth Economics Blog on 2015-03-30 18:30:34

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
  1. > Macroeconomics > Economic Growth > Population and Growth
  2. > Economic History
  3. > Macroeconomics > Economic Growth
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