The Economic Impact of AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa
In this paper, a simple general equilibrium model à la Solow is developed to capture the impact of AIDS on economic growth. To this end, a benchmark model due to Cuddington and Hancock (1994) is extended in various directions. In particular, the sharply declining life expectancy patterns are clearly rejected in the enlarged model through a generic Ben-Porath mechanism. AIDS-related health expenditures are incorporated as well. Using up-do-date optimal forecasting methods, the model applied to South Africa shows that while a relatively short term assessment might not reveal any dramatic AIDS growth effect, the medium/long run impact can be truly devastating. In particular, the heavy trends in mortality and life expectancy currently induced by AIDS are shown to be potentially at least twice more detrimen-tal for per capita economic growth in the period 2020-2030 compared to 2000-2010.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht|
Phone: (31) (0)43 3883875
Fax: (31) (0)43 3216518
Web page: http://www.merit.unu.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brainerd, Elizabeth & Siegler, Mark V, 2003. "The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 3791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
- Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2000.
"Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends and Endogenous Growth,"
Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales)
2000007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June.
- Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, . "vintage human capital, demographic trends and endogenous growth," Working Papers 2000-02, FEDEA.
- Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997.
"Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
- David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006.
"AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
- Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2004. "Aids and Economic Growth: A Human Capital Approach," Working Papers 2004008, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2004.
- Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D., 1994. "Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 363-368, April.
- Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2006.
"AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa,"
NBER Working Papers
12181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
- Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Pessoa, Samuel de Abreu, 2003. "The long run economic impact of AIDS," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 475, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2008038. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ad Notten)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.