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Prevention and medication of HIV/AIDS: the case of Botswana

  • Christian Almeder


  • Gustav Feichtinger


  • Warren Sanderson


  • Vladimir Veliov


In this paper we developed a mathematical model which allows estimating and projecting the effects of prevention and treatment programs on the total population size, HIV-induced deaths, and life expectancies. Considering only the female population we project the changes of the demographic developments and the situation of HIV/AIDS for Botswana up to 2060. Our mathematical model is used to project the female population development considering their age-structure. Treatment programs are included through selecting a price for medication (or giving it for free). Prevention programs consist of two parts: school-based programs which try to change risky behavior and instantaneous prevention (e.g., free condoms) which has only a short-time effect on the infection risk. The main conclusions drawn from our results are that prevention-only programs always yield the fastest decrease in HIV/AIDS prevalence. Adding a medication program reduces the efficiency of the prevention interventions regarding prevalence, but it reduces the number of HIV-induced deaths and increases life expectancies. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2007

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Central European Journal of Operations Research.

Volume (Year): 15 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 47-61

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Handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:15:y:2007:i:1:p:47-61
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  1. Gustav Feichtinger & Vladimir Veliov & Tsvetomir Tsachev, 2004. "Maximum Principle For Age And Duration Structured Systems: A Tool For Optimal Prevention And Treatment Of Hiv," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 3-28.
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